893
FXUS63 KOAX 292342
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (25% CHANCE). SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH
BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TOMORROW)
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR MICHIGAN, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF VORTICITY EXTENDING
ACROSS IOWA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A 25%
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 250
J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP, DUE TO MODEST SURFACE
VORTICITY AND CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS,
PER RAP GUIDANCE. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS AND TYPICALLY BRIEF AND RARELY
REACH THE GROUND. CAMS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF 30-35 MPH. ASIDE FROM PASSING SHOWERS, EXPECTED SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AS MID-
LEVEL RIDING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY AND CALM
CONDITIONS WITH WARMER HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. SOME HAZY SKIES ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTS INTO THE REGION,
THOUGH SURFACE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY AND BEYOND)
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
PERSISTS IN THE PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST,
THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW MAY SWING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MODEST DRY AIR IN THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, POTENTIALLY KEEPING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
LIMITED TO VIRGA. NOT A WASHOUT, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS. CALM, WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO AT
LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN THE UPPER 80S,
POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90 IN SOME AREAS.
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
VARIES ON TIMING AND DETAILS, THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE, BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE SPC HAS
ALREADY PLACED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE IN A 15% RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THEIR DAY 6 (TUESDAY) OUTLOOK. BOTH GEFS AN ECMWF
ENSEMBLE-BASED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A CORRIDOR OF A
5-15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM
TUESDAY POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME, BUT IT'S A PERIOD
WORTH MONITORING CLOSELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SCT CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 6,000 TO 8,000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP MENTIONS AT KLNK
FOR -TSRA FROM 00Z TO 01Z AS KOAX RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING KLNK FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE WITH WINDS AT 12 KTS OR LESS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL SMOKE MOVE IN AFTER 12Z OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY
AREAWIDE, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY NEAR SURFACE IMPACTS AT THIS
TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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