087
FXUS63 KOAX 300833
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. VERY
LITTLE SURFACE SMOKE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS NEARING
90F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WV ANALYSIS REVEALS A DEEP LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ALVIN OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROF OVER THE MIDWEST TIED TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
LEAVES NEBRASKA UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW. THERE IS NO NOTABLE
NEBRASKAN WEATHER TO BE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON GOES 16 AND KPMV'S 6 KNOTS THE QUICKEST
WIND SPEED AS OF 626Z. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER THAN
SEASONAL NORMS WITH LOWER FIFTIES AND UPPER FORTIES IN PLACE OF
AVERAGE LOWS OF UPPER 50S.
LITTLE IS ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD PUSH HIGHER THAN THEY DID
FOR THE PREVIOUS PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK, MAKING A RUN AT 80F
THANKS TO THE CONTINUED SUNSHINE, DRYING, AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OF DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. THIS WILL
LEAVE HIGHS NEAR TYPICAL LATE MAY AVERAGES.
SKIES MAY BE LESS BLUE THAN AUTOMATED FORECASTS SUGGEST. MASSIVE
WILDFIRES IN MANITOBA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND GRIMY SMOKE PLUMES
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. RAP MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA WILL SEE MORE SMOKE THAN
NEBRASKA, BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD NOTE MILKY/CLOUDY
SKIES. THANKFULLY, THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ELEVATED AND
PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO SURFACE IMPACTS.
THE WEEKEND
THE WEEKEND'S WEATHER WILL MOSTLY NOTED FOR ITS TOASTY TEMPS
WITH AN H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND A THERMAL SURFACE
AXIS AT H8 DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT RANGE. IF TEMPS DON'T MANAGE
90F ON SATURDAY, BLAME IT ON THE VORT MAX CRASHING ONSHORE IN
THE PACNW NOW. IT'LL ROUND THAT DEVELOPING RIDGE AND DRIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED 20% POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS MIGHT
BE OVERSELLING THE ODDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME. VIRGA SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS.
IF SATURDAY FALLS SHY OF 90F, SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LIKELIER TO
MEET THAT MARK. OMAHA HAS MANAGED 90 ONCE SO FAR IN 2025.
BACK TO WORK
GLOBAL MODELS DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT TROF AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
TROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING LIKELY POPS
AND A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE REMNANTS OF TS ALVIN ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PHASE UP WITH THE COLD FRONT/TROF ON
TUESDAY AND MAY BRING A CHANCE AT HALF AN INCH OF RAIN AND A
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. ALREADY THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS
OF THE AREA AS HAVING A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON DAY SIX
(TUESDAY). ON AVERAGE, THE OMAHA AREA AVERAGES ONE 'DAY SIX'
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK (15%) A YEAR (VIA IEM). THIS IS THE THIRD
OF THE YEAR SO FAR. OF COURSE, THERE IS MUCH TO BE SORTED OUT
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
COOLER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO
LEAVE THE A/C OFF ALL DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 12 KTS OR LESS AND FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AFTER 00Z, WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN
UNDER 12 KTS.
UPPER LEVEL SMOKE FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA REGION WILL
ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z, EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. WILL THUS SEE HAZY SKIES, BUT SURFACE
IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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