538
FXUS63 KOAX 302047
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
COULD START TO REACH THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS NEARING
90F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE RIDGING IN CONTROL AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. REALLY
THE ONLY THING OF NOTE IN THE COVERAGE AREA WAS INCOMING SMOKE
ALOFT FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. SPEAKING OF THINGS MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH, THERE WAS A FAIRLY COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SAID WAVE WILL
PUSH SOUTH- SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY BRING US SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE WILL BE CLIPPED,
AND SOME INDIVIDUAL MODELS (E.G. 30.12Z HRRR) SUGGEST THERE
WILL BARELY BE ANY PRECIP COVERAGE. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS
REVEAL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET ANYTHING TO THE GROUND. STILL, MUCH OF THE LARGER
SCALE GUIDANCE BRINGS US SOME LIGHT QPF, SO MAINTAINING 20%
CHANCES AS THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD AND AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE RISING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A FEW 90S
ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SMOKE ALOFT MAY START MAKING IT TOWARD THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVEN MORESO ON SUNDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
REDUCED AIR QUALITY. HOWEVER, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PARTICULAR GUIDANCE THAT FAR OUT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
BY MONDAY, A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WHILE A COLD FRONT CRASHES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE STILL A
LITTLE QUESTIONABLE FOR US, ESPECIALLY WITH THINGS GETTING HERE
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF,
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG. IN
ADDITION, IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FAST ENOUGH,
INSTABILITY COULD END UP REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
STILL, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE
RECOVERY NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS KS WHICH COULD YIELD SOME
SEVERE THREAT. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES--NAEFS MEAN APPROACHING
1.75", GOOD FOR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND
INDIVIDUAL MODELS HITTING 1.90"--AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 4000 M, INDICATING WE'LL HAVE EFFICIENT RAIN-
PRODUCERS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE SYSTEM LOOKS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE, BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND GIVING US A BRIEF DRY PERIOD. THE MAIN
WAVE THEN EJECTS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, THOUGH INSTABILITY
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS TO OUR
SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN TRACK AND TIMING
OF THAT ONE.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, BUT (MOSTLY) 70S RETURN WITH THE
PRECIP AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SMOKE LAYER
AROUND 20000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY WITH
SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page