006
FXUS63 KOAX 310908
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
408 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
COULD START TO REACH THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS NEARING
90F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- A PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS, WITH SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPLITS THE CONUS INTO TWO PIECES; AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROF IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MIGHTY EAST COAST
TROF WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN THE TWO,
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DRIVING A COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN
NODAK'S BAKKEN FORMATION. THAT NORTH-NORTHWESTERN FLOW WILL BE
DELIVERING THE DAY'S NOTABLE WEATHER TO NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER ARK-
LA- TEX HAS LEFT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY WITH DIURNAL MIXING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH AND TEMPERATURES, WHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL,
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF OF NBM TEMPS WHEN BIAS-CORRECTION'S
SEASONAL LAG WOULD HAVE HAD ME ADDING A FEW DEGREES IN A
SIMILAR SUNNY SCENARIO. EXPECT ONLY ABOUT 50% OF NORMAL SOLAR
RADIATION TODAY THANKS TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE
MANITOBAN WILDFIRE SMOKE AT 9KFT. SOME SMOKE SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER SURFACE
CONCENTRATIONS EXPECTED AFTER DARK THANKS TO SOME DOWNWARD
MOTION.
ALSO CAUGHT IN THAT NORTHERLY FLOW IS THAT COMPACT WAVE THAT
BRINGS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
25% OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER NOON. CHANCES ARE PRIMARILY
LIMITED TO AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF KLNK. SOME CAPE MAY LEAD TO
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T ANTICIPATED
AND I'M NOT CONFIDENT THAT MUCH PRECIP WILL REACH THE SURFACE
WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. EXPECT THE T-SHOWERS TO END QUICKLY
AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTH IN THE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND 90F MAY BE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT NUMBER HAS SLIPPED AS WILDFIRE SMOKE
IS ANTICIPATED TO ROB SOME INSOLATION. THOSE DAYS WILL BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK AS AIR QUALITY MAY HIT THE WEEK'S LOW
POINT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL BRING A LIKELY CHANCE OF RAIN
AND THUNDER. PWAT VALUES ARE 3-4 STANDARD ANOMALIES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. ENSEMBLE MEANS PRODUCE 1.5" OF PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA (40-60% NBM PROBABILITIES).
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE CONTINUED RAINFALL AND COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM NEAR 80 ALONG THE
MISSOURI STATE LINE TO MID-60S WITHIN A STONE'S THROW OF SODAK.
SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. BUT TIMING WOULD HAVE
TO LINE UP AND THERE'S STILL PLENTY TO BE SORTED BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ARRIVES.
LONGER TERM
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY IMPROVE AS H5 FLOW TURNS ZONAL. THE
FORECAST BECOMES BUSY/MESSY WITH REGULAR/OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF
T-SHOWERS. HAVE HELD MOSTLY CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES OF POPS
THROUGH THE FORECAST'S SECOND HALF AS TEMPS CLIMB FROM MID-70S
ON WEDNESDAY TO LOW 80S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
BENIGN WEATHER WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SUNNY SKIES MARRED ONLY BY CANADIAN WILDFIRE AT
ABOUT FL090. EXPECT THAT SMOKE TO FILTER OUT ABOUT 50% OF
SUNSHINE TO THE SURFACE... ACTING SIMILAR TO A MID-LEVEL
TRANSPARENT STRATUS DECK.
OTHERWISE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL 10-20 KNOT GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KOFK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE OF
-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AT KLNK HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THIS TAF
BASED ON THE CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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