983
FXUS63 KOAX 010948
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
448 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. GREATEST CONCENTRATIONS WILL MOVE INTO IOWA TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND, WITH READINGS
HOVERING AROUND 90F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPS
FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
QUIET WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING AFTER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT RUMBLED THROUGH ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT'LL BE DRY TODAY BEFORE A BUSIER AND
WETTER PATTERN SETS IN.
AN UPPER PATTERN HAND ANALYSIS WOULD REQUIRE A FEW BIG RED 'LS'
FOR AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST, ONE CRASHING INTO THE
PACNW, ANOTHER OVER BAJA THAT'S ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT REMAINS OF
TS ALVIN, AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THAT'S PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
KC METRO.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEY MAY GET
THEIR GROOVE TOGETHER AND POINT SOUTH FOR AN HOUR OR THREE
BEFORE NORTHERN WINDS DEVELOP BY MID-DAY. A FEW OF THE NORTHERN
AWOS/ASOS ARE REPORTING HAZE FROM CANADIAN SMOKE THAT HAS FOUND
ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE. VISIBILITY OF 5 MILES IS COMMON NORTH
OF THE PLATTE RIVER WITH NELIGH REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2
MILES AS OF 4:40AM.
MANITOBAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
US FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE STATE OF GEORGIA. SURFACE
SMOKE SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL MIXING LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT THOSE SENSITIVE TO DECREASED AIR QUALITY MAY NOTICE
IT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
EVENING BRINGS IMPROVEMENT IN NEBRASKA THAT'S NOTABLY GREATER
THAN THAT OF WESTERN IOWA. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SMOKE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST MONDAY, TOO. ONLY CANUCK WILDFIRE SMOKE
WILL MAR THE SKY, ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB CLOSE TO 90F THIS
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN
PROGGED EARLIER AND EARLIER, LEAVING MONDAY NOW WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDER THAN TUESDAY. MONDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE WEEK UNDER A TRANSIENT RIDGE. HIGHS MAY PUSH JUST PAST
THE 90F MARK FOR MOST OF THE AREA. OMAHA HAS ONLY MANAGED THAT
MARK ONCE THIS YEAR SO FAR.
A SHORTWAVE DRIVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BRING AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TIMING DOESN'T MATCH UP WELL FOR THIS CWA AS
BEST TIMING FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND NORTH AND WEST OF
HERE. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM PUSHES PAST LINCOLN, NE (ABOUT
3 AM ON MONDAY NIGHT), THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED.
FORECAST PARAMETERS STILL SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH ELEVATED CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000 J/KG.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT THE AREA
FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SET AT MIDNIGHT WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 60S AS RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY JUST WEST OF HERE. PWAT VALUES WILL PUSH WELL ABOVE 1.5"
AND INTO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY SUMMER. RAINFALL RATES OF
0.5" TO 1" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY QPF ESTIMATES SUGGEST
1" TO 2" TOTAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA (40-60% NBM VIA DESI). MOST
WOULD CONSIDER THE MOISTURE WELCOMED DESPITE ITS ASSOCIATED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONGER TERM
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS RELEGATED TO THE
70S. AS THE H5 PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL, THE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
WARM AND REGULAR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN AND ITS SURFACE IMPLICATIONS GROWING
QUICKLY AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER WHAT
SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS AREN'T EXPECTED, BUT THE
SKIES WILL BE MUDDIED BY CONTINUED CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS KOFK VISIBILITY COULD SLIP AS LOW AS 2 MILES,
BUT I BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 4 OR 5 MILES AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EXACTLY THAT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HAZY
SMOKE TO BE FOUND PRIMARILY BETWEEN FL050 TO FL160 WHERE
(ELEVATED) VISIBILITY MAY BE DOWN TO 5 MILES AT TIMES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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