747  
FXUS63 KOAX 291732  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH  
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THIS MORNING.  
 
- BY THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG A WEAK FRONT LEFT OVER FROM THE  
MORNING STORMS. IT'S HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THIS FAVORED  
AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE, BUT THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 
- MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES  
HEATING BACK UP BY LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
AT 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING, MUCH OF THE LANDSCAPE ACROSS NORTHERN  
NEBRASKA, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND NORTHWEST IOWA FEATURED CLUSTERS OF  
CONVECTIVE STORMS. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS FEEDING INTO  
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS CENTERED OVER  
EASTERN MONTANA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST  
COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST SD. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS  
OF HIGHER QUALITY SUB-850-HPA MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NORTH  
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHEAST KS. MID  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE,  
LENDING TO RATHER SUBSTANTIAL MUCAPE 3000 J/KG OR GREATER. IN  
ANALYZING MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE RADAR  
REPRESENTATION OF THE COLD POOL PERSISTENTLY AHEAD OF THE DEEP  
CONVECTION, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS ARE AT  
LEAST SOMEWHAT CAPPED, BUT STILL ABLE TO FREELY CONVECTIVE GIVEN  
A DEEP ENOUGH COLD POOL. DESPITE HAVING A SEEMINGLY GOOD GRASP  
OF THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, MODELS ARE HAVING A  
CHALLENGING TIME IN NAILING DOWN THIS FORECAST, AS IS OFTEN THE  
CASE IN BORDERLINE EVENTS DRIVEN BY A SHALLOW, DIFFICULT-TO-  
RESOLVE COLD POOL.  
 
THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE  
ONGOING , LARGELY NON-SEVERE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE  
SOUTHEAST, AND WILL PROBABLY TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST  
AREA AS THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT SHOULD ACTUALLY BE EASIER TO  
LIFT MU PARCELS TO THE LFC WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO GREATER  
MOISTURE QUALITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE LLJ IS LIKELY  
TO DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND VEER A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  
SO THERE IS YET A CHANCE THE THE COLD POOL BECOMES TO SHALLOW TO  
LIFT PARCELS TO THE LFC WITHOUT THE ADDED LLJ CONVERGENCE.  
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LLJ  
CONVERGENCE REGION IN THE BETTER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST NE INTO  
SOUTHWEST IA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING  
IN NORTHEAST KS. THROUGHOUT ALL OF THIS CONVECTION THIS MORNING,  
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS PRETTY LIMITED. INSTABILITY IS  
SUFFICIENT BUT WIND PROFILES JUST STRUGGLE TO SUPPORT SEVERE  
STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...AND ANY THAT BECOME SEVERE WOULD  
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED SEVERE EVENTS AMIDST BROADER SUB-SEVERE  
CONDITIONS.  
 
MORNING STORMS WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE LATE DAY FORECAST.  
WHEREVER THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETS UP AND STALLS, IT WILL COOK  
QUITE A BIT WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE  
POOLING MOISTURE. IF THE MORNING STORMS PUSH THAT OUTFLOW WELL  
SOUTH, THEN THE LOCAL AREA SETS UP FOR A QUIETER AFTERNOON. BUT  
IF THE OUTFLOW HOLDS UP, OR MIXES OUT BEFORE INITIATION, THEN  
EXPECT SOME RATHER INTENSE UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED, BUT COULD BE SUFFICIENT  
FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS  
ZONE IF IT PLAYS OUT THIS WAY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN  
RATES AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WHEREVER STORMS STRUGGLE TO MOVE  
OFF THE BOUNDARY.  
 
THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS WILL INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. IF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS  
STABILIZED, IT'LL BE A QUIET NIGHT. BUT OTHERWISE COULD SEE A  
FAIR AMOUNT OF STORM ACTIVITY WITH A LOW END SEVERE AND FLASH  
FLOOD POTENTIAL. AFTER THAT, LOOK TO HAVE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS  
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE AND HOTTER  
TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE WEEK, AND ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES  
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS  
MORNING AFTER THAT MORNING STORM COMPLEX, WITH THE ANTICIPATION  
THAT EASTERLY WINDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD GOING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON WITH A CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE UPPER-END OF MVFR  
TERRITORY AT FL030-050 DEVELOPS NEAR KLNK AND KOMA. THE MAIN  
CONCERN OF THE FORECAST IS WITH STORM CHANCES THAT HAVE NOW  
SHIFTED OVERNIGHT, WITH A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW BEING MOST LIKELY FOR  
ALL SITES (THOUGH KLNK COULD BEGIN EARLIER AND LAST LONGER IF  
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS DEVELOP). AT THIS TIME, STORMS DO NOT  
APPEAR TO BE VERY GUSTY, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE  
NEED TO INCREASE THE FORECASTED TAF WINDS WHEN THEY PASS  
THROUGH.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH  
AVIATION...PETERSEN  
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