144
FXUS63 KOAX 301948
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
248 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80. BRIEF, WEAK
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.
- HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20%) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-60%) ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING
WITH INTERMITTENT STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH TROUGHING PRESENT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PLACES MUCH OF OUR AREA UNDER
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT SUPPORTED THIS MORNINGS MCS IS NOW EXITING THE AREA. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-
80 AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTHWARD. GIVEN STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM SHEAR, AND JUST ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BRIEF AND WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP WITH ANY SHOWERS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS RARELY REACH THE
GROUND, AND IN THE RARE CASES THEY DO, THEY CAN PRODUCE WIND SPEEDS
OF 50+ MPH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP, THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG TO PATCHY AND
WIND-PROTECTED AREAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S. LOW
POPS (15-20%) RETURN TO NORTHEAST NE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND POPS
RANGING FROM 15-30% AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES NEARBY. NO
DAY LOOKS LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, BUT ON-AND-OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY AND BEYOND)
A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, DRIVING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CURRENTLY PEAK FRIDAY EVENING (POPS 40-
60%), SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION, MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE BASED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A PORTION
OF THE AREA IN A 5-15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OR SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION
OF SPECIFIC HAZARDS IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME, THIS WILL BE A
PERIOD TO MONITOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE OPTED
TO NOT INCLUDE THE SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
LACK OF COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL
(20% CHANCE). AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH ABOVE 12 KTS AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS
BEFORE CALMING AFTER 22-00Z AND BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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