361
FXUS63 KOAX 011025
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- LOW END POPS (15-30% CHANCE) RETURN FOR FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WEDNESDAY WARM TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- LOW END POPS CONTINUE THURSDAY (~15%) SOUTH OF I-80, BEFORE PEAKING
ON FRIDAY (40-60%) AREAWIDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (20-40% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH GOES-19 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOOKING ALOFT, 8Z 500 MB RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AXIS NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA, WITH
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST US WHILE A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
SPINS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. 8Z METARS ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS SHOW WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS 8Z
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING, MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. IF ANY FOG DEVELOPS, MUCH OF IT SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE.
SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS,
FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SO OVERALL,
TODAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
RIDING THE RIDGE WILL EJECT FROM THE WYOMING AREA TO THE EAST AND
RIDE ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH WEAK, Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE 850
MB JET HELPS DRAW IN SOME THETA-E ADVECTION. AS A RESULT, CAMS
DO HINT AT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 2 AM WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY
DIVING SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE JET NOSE WHILE STAYING CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS CURRENTLY ARE AT
15-25% IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER AND ROOTED ALOFT, A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT WITH BULK SHEAR AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 KTS AT TIMES.
THE WAVE AND FORCING WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME FORCING LINGERS IN THE FORECAST AREA, THE
BEST FORCING AND CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH OF THE GLOBAL SUITE OF MODELS KEEP US DRY, WHILE THE CAMS
AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. SOME
CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST (HRRR, HIRES FV3,
NSSL WRF, NAM 4KM NEST) OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH OF US STAYING
DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW POP UP SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, WHILE THE 00Z
RUN OF THE HIRES ARW SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG A WEST TO EAST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT ZONE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS, HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW NBM GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS US DRY, BUT
EXPECT FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO POPS IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST
PACKAGES.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZIER AS A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA GIVEN A SFC LOW DEVELOPS WEST OVER EASTERN
WYOMING/COLORADO. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
500 MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST US AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STARTING THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW. THESE WAVES WILL LEAD TO LOW END POP
CHANCES THURSDAY (~15% NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER). BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED GIVEN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
BY FRIDAY, WILL SEE A STRONGER WAVE INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE
SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS NEBRASKA, TRIGGERING AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS ON FRIDAY PEAK AT 40 TO 60% AREAWIDE. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED
POP CHANCES (20-40%) BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. 30% POPS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOWEVER, AS YET
ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEVERE CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK LOW PER MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, WITH
AROUND A 5% CHANCE SEEN FROM GEFS AND EURO BASED PROBABILITIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS OBSERVED SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT (MID TO UPPER 80S).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WILL SEE
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST UNDER 12 KTS ACROSS
TERMINALS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA.
A LOW END CHANCE (15%) FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM EXISTS AT
KOFK LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE TERMINAL
WILL SEE IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS
TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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