170
FXUS63 KOAX 021711
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WILL TRACK EAST EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. POPS PEAK AT 40 TO 60% EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE LATE MORNING.
- MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH A LOW END (<15%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
CEDAR TO SHELBY COUNTIES.
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. 50 TO 70%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY 20-30% POPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
8Z H5 RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE WEAK
FORCING, CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA , LIKELY FUELED BY AN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS.
INSTABILITY ROOTED ALOFT REMAINS MARGINAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 500-700 J/KG OF SKINNY
MUCAPE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS ALSO FAIRLY WEAK, AT 20 TO 25 KTS. CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BEING MARGINAL, COULD SEE
A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL, BUT OVERALL THINKING
IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY WANE WITH EASTWARD EXTEND.
POPS PEAK AT 40 TO 60% ACROSS PORTIONS OF PLATTE, BUTLER, AND SEWARD
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO A 15-25% CHANCE
BY MID MORNING TODAY AS CONVECTION REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MIXED WITH SUN THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A FEW AREAS MAY
SEE HEAT INDICES REACH THE MID 90S AS WELL GIVEN THE DEW POINTS WILL
BE HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER SUBTLE H5 WAVE RIDING THE RIDGE ALONG THE DAKOTAS AND
PASSING CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVEL FORCING LOOKS RATHER WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT, BUT
BETTER FORCING IS SEEN LOOKING WITHIN THE H8 TO H7 LAYER, MOST
LIKELY DRIVEN BY A WEAK LLJ WHICH FESTERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FSD AND DMX CWAS. CAMS
SHOW WIDELY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS ACTIVITY, SO HAVE LEFT
POPS AT UNMENTIONABLE (<15%) ALONG OUR SHARED BORDER WITH FSD
AND DMX.
IF FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE ROOTED ALOFT GIVEN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY ABOVE A SUBTLE WARM LATER. COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR, SOME MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL AND WIND
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CEDAR TO
SHELBY COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
H5 SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AREA WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WYOMING FOR THURSDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL RESULT
IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA LEADING
TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME AREAS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES REACH THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100F BRIEFLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER, BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN KANSAS SO HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM LATEST NBM
RUN WHICH INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OAX. LOWS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND EJECT TO THE EAST
TOWARD SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE
SFC LOW TRACKS TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT A WINDY DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND POTENTIALLY MIXING INTO A LOW LEVEL JET. THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR SERVICE AREA FOR
FRIDAY. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT 50 TO 70%. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, STILL SEE SOME
LOW END PROBABILITIES (AROUND 5% OR LESS) FROM THE GEFS AND EURO
MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS PWATS
FROM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SHOW AROUND 1.75 TO 2 INCHES COUPLED WITH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REACHING AROUND 4,000 METERS.
THE SFC FRONT LINGERS ON SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THUS, POP CHANCES LINGER INTO
SATURDAY (30-50%). THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES LARGELY DRIVEN BY SEVERAL H5 WAVES RIDING ALONG A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE NBM EXTENDED HAVING POPS AT 20
TO 30% FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN WARM WITH VALUES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOL TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CA
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