280  
FXUS63 KOAX 022024  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
324 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF  
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING  
(10-15% CHANCE).  
 
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SPOTTY STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH HIGHER CHANCES (50-70%) ARRIVING FOR THE EVENING INTO  
SATURDAY, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON EXACT TIMING. THE SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW (LESS THAN 5% CHANCE).  
 
- DAILY 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO NEXT  
WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR HAIL, WIND, OR TORNADOES LOOKS LOW (LESS  
THAN 5%), BUT REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO  
A FLOODING THREAT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
FAIRLY QUIET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE/MCV RESPONSIBLE  
FOR OUR EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS EVIDENT PUSHING  
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS  
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT COULD SEE  
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NE AND WEST-  
CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING AS IT PASSES THROUGH (10-15% CHANCE). MODEST  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A STRONGER TO ISOLATED  
SEVERE STORM IN THIS AREA, BUT AGAIN, CHANCES FAVOR STORMS REMAINING  
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.  
 
THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON  
THURSDAY AND SHOULD YIELD A DRY, BUT WARM DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS  
IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100, HIGHEST  
NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER AND IN URBAN AREAS.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH STORM CHANCES BEING  
THE MAIN FOCUS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER  
SOUTHERN CA WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A  
SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT ALSO MOVING IN. SAID WIND SHIFT WILL  
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN ON EXACT TIMING OF  
THOSE STORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT CONSENSUS  
FAVORS THIS LINE REMAINING MOSTLY TO OUR WEST THROUGH 9-10 PM AND  
PUSHING IN AFTER, BUT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE  
THAT ARE EARLIER (AND LATER), SO THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO  
MONITOR GOING FORWARD. IN ADDITION, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD  
SEE SPOTTY, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH  
OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE KEEP US CAPPED. REGARDLESS, THERE SHOULD BE  
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO YIELD AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM, BUT  
WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT. THAT  
SAID, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS  
OVER 4 KM COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, BUT  
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING  
THROUGH. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID 4TH, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30  
MPH COULD HELP AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY  
REMAINING IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OFF  
TO THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'LL REMAIN IN  
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
SLIDING THROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ALMOST A PERPETUAL 20-30%  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ANY GIVEN TIME WELL INTO NEXT WEEK,  
WITH THE MOST LIKELY DRY TIME BEING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (10-15%  
CHANCE OF RAIN). THE HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY (MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS SHOWING A 5% CHANCE AT MOST)  
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINING PRETTY MODEST. HOWEVER, THE THREAT  
OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS, A FLOODING THREAT COULD DEVELOP AT  
TIMES. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE'LL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE HEADING INTO  
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE  
MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND  
SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY  
CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD  
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS  
FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL  
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME  
GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CA  
AVIATION...CA  
 
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