809  
FXUS63 KOAX 031025  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
525 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.  
HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
 
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH  
SATURDAY. POPS PEAK AT 50-65% FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST  
NEBRASKA AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME  
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
- BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY BUT ACTIVE PATTERN  
WITH 20-30% SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SHORT TERM  
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS OAX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 8Z  
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE H5 RIDGE SITTING OVER MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. EARLIER THIS MORNING, 5Z KOAX AND KFSD RADAR IMAGERY  
SHOWED A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF KNOX AND CEDAR  
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG A ZONE OF WEAK  
850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND WITH THE BEST DEEP MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE OBSERVED JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
EXPECTING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY AWAY FROM OUR CWA EARLY THIS  
MORNING.  
 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO  
MID 90S. FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE SOUTH  
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA BORDER COULD STILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER  
90S, AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F, HEAT INDICES  
MAY BRIEFLY HIT THE 100F MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. H5 RIDGING SHOULD  
LARGELY SUPPRESS POP CHANCES, BUT A FEW CAMS TRY TO GENERATE WIDELY  
SCATTERED POP UP SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON THIS  
OCCURRING IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING  
SEEN FROM MODEL GUIDANCE, SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY.  
 
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY  
OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
TODAY HELPING INDUCE A SFC LOW. THE SFC LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY  
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE H5 SHORTWAVE AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN AS IT TRAVELS  
EAST TOWARD THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SFC LOW WILL RACE  
NORTHEASTWARD, DRAGGING ALONG A SFC TROF WHICH STALLS ACROSS MUCH OF  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING FROM THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENING. CAM GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE  
DEVELOPS AN MCS LOOKING FEATURE ALONG THE SFC TROF FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHILE FOR EASTERN  
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA, CAMS GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED POP UP  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK CAPPING ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA WHICH MAY HELP LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE  
LINE WILL FIRST ENTER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SOMETIME AROUND 7 PM  
AND THEN TRACK ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN  
IOWA OVERNIGHT. CAM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES  
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE, SO THOSE WITH ANY  
OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST. POP  
CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, PEAKING FRIDAY EVENING AT  
50-65% ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL, MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND  
1,500 J/KG OF SKINNY MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT  
ONCE AGAIN, BULK SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH VALUES AT 20  
TO 25 KTS. SO, AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WITH SOME HAIL OR  
WIND IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS A  
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST  
NEBRASKA FOR FRIDAY. THE WPC HAS ALSO ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA  
AS STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS  
AROUND 2 INCHES AND FAVORABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS.  
 
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, BUT WILL  
ULTIMATELY BE A FUNCTION OF THE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADS THE  
AREA AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE. DESPITE HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO  
MID 90S, DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL RESULT IN A  
HUMID, UNCOMFORTABLE AIRMASS. LOWS COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
   
LONG TERM  
/SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
THE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING ALONG THE SFC TROF WITH POPS PEAKING AT 50-70%. LINGERING  
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15-30%  
CHANCE) AS FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROF LINGER  
IN THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE SKIRT THROUGH SOME  
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER NEBRASKA, BUT A SFC HIGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS  
MAY DIP SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP SUPPRESS POP CHANCES: THE  
NBM EXTENDED CURRENTLY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE  
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS ANOTHER RIDGE  
BUILDING AND AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WITH MUCH OF THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES APPEAR  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND HAS LED TO CONTINUED 20-30% CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME LOW END SEVERE THREAT (<5% CHANCE) IS  
STILL INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE GEFS AND EURO BASED SEVERE  
PROBABILITY OUTLOOKS.  
 
ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (LOW TO MID 80S),  
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. TERMINALS  
WILL SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN AFTER 17Z AND SHOULD  
SUBSIDE BY 00 OR 01Z.  
 
1023Z KOAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS AND  
STORMS NORTH OF KSUX. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF KOMA AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS WITH ONLY SOME FEW OR SCT REMNANT CLOUDS AROUND 15-25KFT.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO  
AVIATION...CASTILLO  
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