402  
FXUS63 KOAX 032025  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
325 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF SPOTTY STORMS BEFORE 4 PM FRIDAY  
WITH HIGHER CHANCES (50-70%) ARRIVING THEREAFTER INTO  
SATURDAY, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON EXACT TIMING. A FEW COULD BE  
STRONG TO SEVERE (5% CHANCE) WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY  
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  
 
- DAILY 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR HAIL, WIND, OR TORNADOES  
LOOKS LOW (5% OR LESS), BUT REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING THREAT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
QUIET, WARM, AND HUMID ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES AS OF  
3 PM WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER  
70S, YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.  
 
MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE GENERAL  
IDEA IS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN  
WARM, MOIST AIR AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH  
THROUGH THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S  
TO LOWER 90S AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER  
70S. SO HOT AND HUMID AGAIN, BUT 20-30 MPH GUSTS SHOULD HELP AT  
LEAST A LITTLE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY-  
DRIVEN SPOTTY STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NE,  
THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD SOMEWHAT  
LIMIT INSTABILITY. RIGHT NOW, PRECIP CHANCES SIT AROUND 15-30%  
THROUGH 4 PM, INCREASING AS YOU MOVE WEST. MEANWHILE, STORMS  
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH, MOST LIKELY  
ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NE, AND PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA  
SOMEWHERE INTO THE 4-7 PM WINDOW, BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN  
EXACT TIMING AND HOW FAR EAST THEY'LL MAKE IT. FOR WHAT IT'S  
WORTH, LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS CHANCES BELOW 50% THROUGH MIDNIGHT  
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH AS YOU GO WEST OF NORFOLK AND  
COLUMBUS, YOU GET INTO THE 60-70% RANGE. YOU'LL DEFINITELY WANT  
TO CHECK ON THE LATEST FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR ANY EVENING  
FESTIVITIES.  
 
REGARDING STORM STRENGTH, SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN PRETTY WEAK AND  
THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO  
A FAIRLY LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN  
A LEVEL 1 OF 5, OR "MARGINAL" RISK) WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING  
THE PRIMARY THREAT (DOWNBURSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE). HOWEVER, WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD  
DEPTHS OVER 4 KM, STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND  
COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT IF ANYONE  
SEES REPEATED ROUNDS.  
 
THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO LINGER IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH  
CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ITS VICINITY. CAN'T  
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN  
FAR SOUTHEAST NE/FAR SOUTHWEST IA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ONCE  
AGAIN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. IT LOOKS LIKE  
WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER FAVORED ON  
SUNDAY BEFORE WE SEE VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE  
THROUGH AND GIVE US ALMOST DAILY 20-40% RAIN CHANCES THROUGH  
NEXT WEEK WITH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY  
GIVEN SYSTEM BEING RATHER LOW. MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL REMAIN  
RATHER LOW (AROUND 5- 10%), BUT JUST ENOUGH TO PAY ATTENTION TO  
AS WE GO FORWARD, ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOCATIONS START SEEING  
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND  
LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW CLOUDS  
AROUND 7000 FT AGL AND SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CA  
AVIATION...CA  
 
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