831
FXUS63 KOAX 070352
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1052 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY STORM CHANCES (20-50%) CONTINUE TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK. REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NE AND TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.
- EXPECT RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE LATEST 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A WEAK TROUGH REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE. AN MCS TO SURVIVING LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND MOVING
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE
STORMS AND OVERALL MCS BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER MCS MAY MOVE
OUT OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. IT TOO THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT QUIET WEATHER AS WEAK RIDGING TAKES THE PLACE
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS MAY FORM AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT PRESENT THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA BUT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TO THE EAST, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS ROBUST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS EAST MONDAY EVENING. WITH THESE STORMS THE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS,
THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE SPC CURRENTLY
INCLUDES MUCH OF EASTERN NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
LONGER TERM (TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND)...EXPECT AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOST DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH, BRINING
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WITH IT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
2500-3500 FT AGL. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE UNDER 10 KTS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS. REGARDING STORMS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED STORMS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO MID-AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ONE HITTING A TAF SITE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. HIGHER STORM CHANCES ARRIVE FOR THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST
THEY'LL MAKE IT. FOR NOW, ONLY INCLUDED MENTION AT OFK, AS IT
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANYTHING PRIOR TO 06Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...CA
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