304
FXUS63 KOAX 081719
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1219 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING COMPLEX
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
- A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TOMORROW)
AS OF 2 AM, MRMS COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DISPLAYS LAST NIGHT'S MCS
PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO, LEAVING BEHIND GRADUALLY
DECAYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ZOOMING OUT,
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING THE RIDGE AND
PUSHING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKIES
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS LATER TODAY, THOUGH THIS CHANCE REMAINS LOW (< 20%),
GIVEN HOW OVERWORKED THE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL APPROACH THE AREA
INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (POPS
20-35%). STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE TO OUR WEST ALONG AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH, WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
MODEST SHEAR, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER, SHEAR GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS THE
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT
REMAINS IS HOW STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PROGRESS INTO OUR
AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM CONGEALING INTO ANOTHER MCS. THE
SPC CURRENTLY CLIPS NORTHEAST NE WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY AND BEYOND)
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS A TWO POTENT
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER
AS THEY PUSH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH, STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN MOISTURE, WITH A PLUME OF 70+ DEWPOINTS
EXCEPTED ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND A TONGUE OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PULL
INTO THE AREA. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THIS SETUP AND THE
EXPECTED STORM MODE, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ADDITIONALLY, THE SETUP IS LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GIVEN PWAT VALUES PUSHING NEAR 2".
POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 45-60% LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS IN BOTH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC AND
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FROM WPC.
A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS TAKING A SUBTLE DROP INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. POPS TAPER OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE
REMAIN IN ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LITTLE TO NO
DISTURBANCES SLIDING BY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MAY SEE A SCT
CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 5,000 FT AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER 12 KTS AND TURN MORE EASTERLY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST.
MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECT KOFK AFTER 11Z
AND KLNK AFTER 14Z, BUT GIVEN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LESS THAN 50%
AT TERMINALS SEEING IMPACTS, HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT FURTHER REFINEMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS WITH FUTURE
ISSUANCES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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