862  
FXUS63 KOAX 091036  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
536 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A FEW SPOTTY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH A BETTER  
CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING (30-50%), CAPABLE OF  
HAIL (UP TO 1") AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO 60 MPH).  
 
- HIGHER STORM CHANCES (50-75%) ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AGAIN THE  
PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A  
CONCERN.  
 
- STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT, ON-AND-OFF  
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE  
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, PLACING OUR AREA UNDER  
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOG, WITH PATCHY AREAS OF  
DENSE FOG, WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY IN SOUTHWEST IA  
AND AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING (4-7 AM) ACROSS NORTH-  
CENTRAL AND INTO NORTHEAST NE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE NOSE OF  
A 25-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BRIEFLY POINTS INTO THE  
REGION. CAM GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY IN STORM COVERAGE, WITH THE  
HRRR AND FV3 SHOWING BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWERS, WHILE THE NAM NEST AND  
NSSL-WRF SUGGEST A MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. GIVEN MODEST  
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG), WEAK SHEAR (BULK SHEAR NEAR  
20 KTS), AND LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT, THE MORE SUBDUED SOLUTIONS  
APPEAR MORE PROBABLE. POPS PEAK AT 20-30% THROUGH MID-MORNING, THEN  
TAPER OFF BY NOON, ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S.  
 
A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARRIVES THIS  
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA  
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL NE AND SD. STORM ARE  
EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG A  
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NE. A  
FEW INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE CONVECTION GROWS  
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. HOW FAR EAST THIS COMPLEX PUSHES WILL DEPEND  
HEAVILY ON THE OUTCOME OF MORNING CONVECTION. SHOULD MORNING STORMS  
REMAIN LIMITED, MORE ROBUST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION COULD ALLOW  
MLCAPE VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2500-3000+ J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER,  
SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIMITED, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DROPPING TO 20-25  
KTS AS STORMS MOVE EAST, LIKELY CAPPING OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THAT  
BEING SAID, STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AREA OF HAIL  
(UP TO 1) WITH ANY DISCRETE OR STRONGER UPDRAFTS BEFORE A  
TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT (GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH) AS  
UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. SPC CURRENTLY INCLUDES THE WESTERN  
PORTION OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER. POPS AGAIN PEAK AT 30-50% THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING  
OFF OVERNIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY...  
 
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TWO  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MERGE INTO A  
SINGLE, MORE PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE THAT FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND  
PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NE EARLY IN THE DAY AND TRACK  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE LOW, STRONG LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DRAW IN A STREAM OF 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS,  
SETTING THE STAGE FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. COMBINED WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, HEAT INDEX VALUES  
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 95 AND 102 DEGREES.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING  
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM-AIR ADVECTION. THESE COULD  
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST BY TEMPERING INSTABILITY, BUT IF COVERAGE  
REMAINS LIMITED, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 DEG/KM) AND  
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW A CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG  
INSTABILITY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING  
3000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE, COMBINED WITH A  
STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO THE EVENING, WILL SUPPORT LONG HODOGRAPHS,  
BRINGING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  
 
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM MODE AND ASSOCIATED  
HAZARDS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FEATURES AN INITIAL CLUSTER OF  
SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AT PEAK DAYTIME HEATING TO OUR WEST BEFORE  
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. SPC CURRENTLY  
INCLUDES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANOTHER CONCERN. PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.75-2.00"  
(ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF OAX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY  
JULY) COMBINED WITH LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS  
OF 3-4 KM WILL PROMOTE HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. ALTHOUGH  
THE MCS ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE, A FAVORABLE  
OVERLAP OF THE LLJ AND SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT BACKBUILDING  
STORMS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE AREA  
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. POPS  
CURRENTLY PEAK AT 50-75% THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...  
 
POPS OF 40-70% CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCE PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING HIGHS CONFINED TO THE  
80S. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS ON  
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 
ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FLATTENS AND RETREATS  
TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN  
THE FLOW MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS  
~15%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH  
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
FOG IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FOR AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER  
VALLEY, WITH PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. FOG MAY  
APPROACH KOMA BETWEEN 11-14Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS  
OCCURRENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
ALSO DEVELOP IN EAST- CENTRAL NE THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS, PRIMARILY KOFK. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE, WITH SPEEDS REACHING 12 KTS AT KOFK THIS  
AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING IN THE EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX  
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
EVENING (0200-1000Z). CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE AT ANY  
PARTICULAR TIME IS LOW (30-40%), THEREFORE ANY THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES WILL BE REFINED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...WOOD  
AVIATION...WOOD  
 
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