382
FXUS63 KOAX 111725
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING FLOODING THIS MORNING IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS TODAY AND A 5%
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO PUSH THROUGH WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND INTO SOUTHEAST NE AND
WEST-CENTRAL KS AND SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD
THE NE/KS/IA/MO BORDER REGION, THOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN A DISSIPATING STAGE. HOWEVER, BY THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, THOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. STILL, IT'S WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, ESPECIALLY WITH
2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE PER HREF GUIDANCE AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION IF WE MANAGE TO GET
SOMETHING TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IF WE DO GET
ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, MOST OF IT SHOULD FALL SOUTH OF
WHERE WE SAW THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT, SO THE OVERALL
FLOODING RISK SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE.
THEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS ND AND INTO MT AND WY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL 20- 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST
COVERAGE IN OUR AREA COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH DISSIPATING
TRENDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.
WE SHOULD DRY OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
AND SURFACE RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
PRETTY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND
FAIRLY "MANAGEABLE" HUMIDITY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WE'LL RISE BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES BY
BOTH JUST NORTH AND JUST SOUTH, BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE STAY
DRY. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST.
ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. STILL SOME SPREAD IN FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING WITH VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OTHERS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AT SOME POINT AND
GIVE US A ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CURRENTLY
APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT/WAVE, WE COULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE
TO YIELD SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH,
VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES KEEP OUR
CHANCES BELOW 5%. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRETTY COMFORTABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
POP UP NEAR KOMA THIS AFTERNOON, BETWEEN 18-22Z, BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITE. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE KOFK AREA BETWEEN 01-04Z THIS EVENING. A THIRD
AND FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY EFFECT ALL THREE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z-12Z SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE SPOTTY NATURE
OF THE STORMS AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL
ACTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES, OPTED TO LEAVE OUT A MENTION OF
-TSRA FOR THE TIME BEING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
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