954
FXUS63 KOAX 121053
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY TODAY BEFORE WARMING UP SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR HAIL.
- POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON EXACT
TIMING. IF PLACES DO SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS, FLOODING
COULD BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
EARLY MORNING MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO
OUR SOUTHEAST WITH EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG IT, NEARLY
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, AN MCS WAS CONTINUING ITS TRACK
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL NE AND WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA (I.E. SALINE, JEFFERSON COUNTIES),
THOUGH IT'S ON A WEAKENING TREND WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL CONTINUE ON THAT TREND THROUGH SUNRISE.
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN OUR AREA BY 8-9 AM AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING BUILDS IN AND SHOULD LEAD TO A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY CONSIDERING WE'RE IN THE HEART OF JULY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, SO NOT NEARLY AS
HUMID AS WE'VE BEEN SEEING. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS BY JUST TO
OUR SOUTH, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ASSOCIATED PRECIP REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER, BUT IT COULD END UP SNEAKING INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NE (10% CHANCE). IN ADDITION, A WEAKER BIT OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WHILE SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL WE'LL HAVE SOME DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME, BUT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES
IN EASTERN NE AND FAR WESTERN IA THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL START TO PUSH IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA (20% CHANCE) WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES BACK IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE WARM WEATHER STICKS AROUND TO START THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER FAVORED MONDAY AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
STORM CHANCES START TO RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH. THAT SAID, THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUESDAY EVENING TO AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. ALSO SOME SIGNS THE FRONT COULD LINGER IN
THE AREA A COUPLE DAYS AND PRECEDE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH BEHIND IT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A RETURNING LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT. REGARDING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO YIELD
SOME SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SO WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY AND VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER MACHINE
LEARNING ALGORITHMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABOUT A 5% CHANCE IN OUR
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'LL COOL DOWN TO END THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. AT LEAST LOW RAIN
CHANCES (20%) WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH, BUT
STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH OF THOSE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3000-5000 TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST HOVERING AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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