181
FXUS63 KOAX 121959
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR HAIL.
- POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON EXACT
TIMING. IF PLACES DO SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS, FLOODING
COULD BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NE AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT A COOLER AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR MASS TO THE
REGION TODAY, WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS LINKED TO
A DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY, WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NE
BEFORE STALLING. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN EASTERN NE.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, THE CAMS SHOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (20% POPS) ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST
NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
STRONG STORM OR TWO, CAPABLE OF MAINLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
WINDS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN THOSE TODAY,
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
..NEXT WEEK
AN INITIALLY ZONAL, MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY, WITH TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BY MID-WEEK. A
TRANSITION BACK TO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN IS THEN ANTICIPATED BY
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY NIGHT, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING TO 30-50% TUESDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (20-40%) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE SPORADIC LOW POPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE
TIED TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION, WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN
(AS MENTIONED ABOVE). IF THE FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY, WE
WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND
INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
RESULTANT MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS. IN CONTRAST, A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL MOVEMENT WOULD RESULT IN A SHORTER PERIOD OF RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, AND LOWER FLOODING RISK.
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH THE VARIOUS MACHINE-LEARNING FORECAST SYSTEMS INDICATING
THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
70S AND 80S BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS (FL250). FEW TO SCT CLOUDS
AT FL050 COULD BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT AS OF MIDDAY WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO
LIGHT SOUTH TONIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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