752
FXUS63 KOAX 262000
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RENEWED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, POTENTIALLY STRETCHING INTO TUESDAY. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH
HIGHER STORM POTENTIAL RETURNING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN THREATS.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK'S SECOND HALF WITH ON
AND OFF RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUED TO BUILD IN TODAY LEADING TO A
QUIET, BUT WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SOME STORMS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NE THIS EVENING, BUT ALL CAMS KILL THEM
OFF BEFORE THEY PUSH INTO OUR AREA, AS THEY RUN OUT OF THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INTO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. PLUS LACK OF
SHEAR SUGGESTS THEY WOULDN'T SUSTAIN THEMSELVES VERY LONG
ANYWAY. OTHERWISE, MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER, WINDS ALOFT LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN PAST NIGHTS, SO DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A BIT MORE
PATCHY/STRATUS AND/OR CONFINED TO LOW-LYING AREAS.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW USHERING IN EVEN MORE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. NAEFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SUNDAY
AND 99TH+ PERCENTILE ON MONDAY. FURTHERMORE, WE'RE BASICALLY AT
OUR ANNUAL CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW, SO
"EXTRA" IMPRESSIVE. AS IT STANDS, CURRENTLY LOOKING AT
WIDESPREAD 90S BOTH DAYS, WITH MONDAY GENERALLY BEING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80 IN PORTIONS OF IA WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES WELL INTO THE 100S AND 110-115 FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WHICH WON'T ALLOW FOR MUCH RECOVERY.
THEREFORE, ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A FEW COUNTIES IN A HEAT
ADVISORY SUNDAY AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MONDAY. WE'LL
PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS WELL, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH, SO CONFIDENCE IN NORTH/SOUTH
EXTENT IS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY, AND THEN WIDESPREAD 70S THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW PLACES MAY NOT EVEN GET
OUT OF THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
NOW REGARDING STORM CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE'LL LIKELY
STAY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY MUCH OF
MONDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, MN, AND INTO IA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT A FEW
PIECES SUGGEST FAR NORTHEAST NE AND WEST- CENTRAL IA COULD GET
CLIPPED BY A SHOWER OR STORM (10% CHANCE AT MOST). THEN BY
MONDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO
SOUTHERN SD AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN NE WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE SLIDES THROUGH. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT MAKES IT, AND THUS, IF WE GET ANY STORMS IN OUR AREA,
BUT IF WE DO, THERE WOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THAT SAID, WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION IN OUR
AREA.
HIGHER STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS TRACK SOUTH
AND SOME MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, WE'LL
HAVE A VERY WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WOULD YIELD A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT ONCE AGAIN,
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, SO STORMS COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND DISORGANIZED AGAIN. STILL, THINK
WE'D HAVE A DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT
GETS OUT OF HERE, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST, WE'LL SEE ADDITIONAL
POST-FRONTAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS VARIOUS BITS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH. BASICALLY EVERY TIME PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEKEND HAS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE
OF RAIN. SO AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ANY GIVEN SYSTEM, BUT WE'LL PROBABLY SEE ON AND OFF
RAIN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS ALOFT LOOK STRONGER THAN PAST NIGHTS, SO
THINKING IT SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-090-
091-093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ078-
088-089-092.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ078-
088-089-092.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-069-079-080-090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ056.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ056.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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