333
FXUS63 KOAX 280429
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY STRETCH INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY MONDAY,
WITH HIGHER STORM POTENTIAL RETURNING LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN THREATS.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK'S SECOND HALF WITH ON
AND OFF RAIN CHANCES. THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN COULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
SOME GOOD OL' "AIR YOU CAN WEAR" OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
3 PM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-115+. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT AND SIMILAR,
IF NOT WARMER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE AREA-
WIDE EXTREME HEAT WARNING STILL IN PLACE. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THERE'S SOME RELIEF JUST SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE
FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE BAD NEWS IS IT'S STILL 2-3 DAYS OUT.
THE OTHER THING OF NOTE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN SD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NE WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS BUBBLING UP
ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
IN ITS VICINITY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING, BUT GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY OUT OF OUR
AREA. THAT SAID, THERE ARE A FEW SOLUTIONS THAT DO CLIP
NORTHEAST NE WITH A FEW STORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER AND
IF THAT DOES HAPPEN, COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
KIND OF A SIMILAR SETUP MONDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE
ACROSS WESTERN NE, THOUGH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL BE
MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES BY THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF OUR AREA WILL STAY DRY,
LIKELY OWING TO SOME PRETTY DRY AIR ALOFT, BUT AGAIN A FEW
SOLUTIONS CLIP NORTHEAST NE WITH SOME ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY START PUSHING IN ON TUESDAY AND PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL IMPACT BOTH STORM CHANCES LATER THAT
DAY/NIGHT AND NEED FOR ANOTHER HEAT HEADLINE (LIKELY AN
ADVISORY). CURRENT CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NE
(INCLUDING OMAHA AND LINCOLN) AND SOUTHWEST IA IN A NEW
ADVISORY, BUT STILL JUST ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO PRECLUDE ISSUING
AT THIS POINT. HOPEFULLY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GIVES US SOME MORE
HINTS TONIGHT. REGARDING THE STORM CHANCES, EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM THREAT. HOWEVER, WEAK SHEAR
WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED, BUT EVEN WITH
THAT, WOULD STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO STAY IN OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
IT. EVEN ONCE THE FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WE'LL SEE ON AND
OFF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDE THROUGH, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING AT LEAST
15-20% CHANCES EACH DAY. WHILE THE HAIL/WIND/TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE PRETTY MINIMAL BEHIND THE FRONT, THE REPEATED ROUNDS COULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY FALL OFF WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 70S EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 35KT
AROUND 1000-1500 FT WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT THE TERMINALS FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT, ENDING AROUND 10-11Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH, INCREASING TO 12G20KT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
RELAXING AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-090-091-093.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ078-088-089-092.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ078-
088-089-092.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-069-
079-080-090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ056.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ056.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...MCCOY
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