001
FXUS63 KOAX 282254
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
554 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 110
DEGREES, HIGHEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
- THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING (60-80% CHANCE). THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ON
AND OFF RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH CHANCES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT DRAPED NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SD WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN CO INTO THE NE PANHANDLE. CLOSER TO HOME, SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE WAS LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
JUST EAST OF ATLANTIC AND AUDUBON, BUT THINKING IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR EAST. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GOT
OFF TO A SLOW START TODAY FOLLOWING THE STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL, BY 3 PM WE HAD
MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S LEADING TO HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 115. THEN FOR TUESDAY, WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER
SIMILAR SITUATION WITH A MORNING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TEMPERING
THINGS, PLUS A COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATER IN THE DAY, BUT STILL
EXPECT AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO SEE HEAT INDICES
OF 100-110 AGAIN. THEREFORE, ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PLATTE
COUNTY EAST TO SHELBY COUNTY AND AREAS SOUTH. THE NORTHERN ROW
OR 2 OF COUNTIES IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT, BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE QUITE WARM THERE BEFORE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
NOW ONTO THE STORM CHANCES IN THE COMING DAYS, FIRST THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ALREADY SEEING SOME ACTIVITY NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST SD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NE.
EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING INITIAL CELLS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
THAT PUSHES EAST ACROSS SD AND TURNS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CAPE
AXIS (5000-6000 J/KG OF MUCAPE PER THE RAP), MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST IA. COMBINED WITH JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO KEEP THINGS
ORGANIZED, WE'LL SEE A A PRETTY HIGH-END WIND THREAT IN THOSE
AREAS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD SNEAK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IA AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL THAT EVEN JUST AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BRINGS STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS WITHOUT MUCH, IF ANY RAIN, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FRONT AND PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA.
EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (HREF MEAN SBCAPE OF 3000-4000+ J/KG).
SHEAR DOES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK, WITH THE STRONGER
FLOW REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SO THINK STORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE PRETTY OUTFLOW DOMINANT. STILL EXPECT A DAMAGING
WIND THOUGH, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.75" TO 2", WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING
4000 M, AND INDICATIONS OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. EVENTUALLY
IT'LL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME 80S LOOKING TO CREEP BACK IN BY
SUNDAY. WHILE SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES (20%) REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE IN NEARLY ALL OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STORMS
TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WHICH WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST KOFK, AND PROBABLY KOMA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INCLUDED THE BURST OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS A TEMPO WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BEFORE THE
WIND FIELD RETURNS BACK TO SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERLY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-
012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ042>045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...MCCOY
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