892
FXUS63 KOAX 301654
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1154 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, LINGERING LONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE AREA STARTING TODAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
BIG SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS MILDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SHIFTING EAST ALLOWING FOR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
STORMS TONIGHT HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING HAD 7500 J/KG
OF CAPE SHOWING AN INCREDIBLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR. NOW THAT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA, YOU CAN SEE THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LINE OF STORMS
ON RADAR LEADING TO DECREASING CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVER TIME.
THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR. THIS IS MORPHING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS INTO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ONCE THE MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER
THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. CLOUDS WILL HANG ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGHS BARELY MAKING 80 DEGREES AT
OMAHA, STAYING IN THE MID 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S SOUTH.
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET FLATTENS THE UPPER-LEVEL REGIME THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH 500-MB FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE WEEKEND WE SEE A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WE'LL SEE A RIDGE
BUILD BACK UP OVER THE ROCKIES BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK UP
CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH CPC BRINGING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY TIMEFRAME AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK
OVER US.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SPORADIC THIS MORNING, WITH THAT TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DECK OF SCT
TO BKN CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFTS FROM FL020 TO FL040 THROUGH 21Z.
CURRENTLY, A WEAK AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE KLNK
VICINITY AND SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE TERMINAL SHORTLY WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF THUNDER TO
CROP UP NEAR KOFK, BUT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE SITE.
LATER THIS EVENING, LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN
AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY TO MAKE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONGSIDE 4 MILE VISIBILITIES AND MIST AS
EARLY AS 10Z. AS IF NOW, MODELS AREN'T PEGGING ANY LOCATIONS
FOR DENSE FOG, WITH OVERALL VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AROUND THE
15-16Z TIMEFRAME TOMORROW MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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