610
FXUS63 KOAX 310437
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A BRIEF FUNNEL OR TWO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER.
- RECENT MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME FOG FORMATION TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE LOUP/PLATTE RIVER VALLEYS.
- THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S RETURN BY MID-NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THAT HAS BEEN AMPLIFIED BY A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA
REGION. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CURRENT CONDITIONS, A BROAD
SHORTWAVE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE PROVIDED PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SHALLOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA, WITH A CYCLONICALLY
CONVERGENT ZONE EXTENDING ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
INTO NORTHERN IOWA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD FORMATION THAT SHOULD LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER IN THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FIELDS. SHORT-TERM CAMS
FAVOR THIS BOUNDARY FOR SOME SPORADIC SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (IN ADDITION TO LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH
FORM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE), WHICH WILL BE LIMITED BY MUCH POORER
LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO THE LOWEST 1 KM OF MODELED VERTICAL
PROFILES. THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS HAS CONTRIBUTED
TO MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT'S STORMS, BRINGING A MUCH-NEEDED COOLDOWN TO THE AREA. HIGHS
ARE ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY'LL GET, WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
WE'LL CONTINUE THE COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S AREA-WIDE, INTRODUCING CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DIP ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT
VALUES AND WILL MEET CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE REQUIREMENTS, THOUGH
WINDS THAT ARE FORECASTED TO BE 5-10 MPH COULD LIMIT HOW THICK FOG
CAN REALLY SETTLE. AS OF RIGHT NOW THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER
THE GUN FOR FOG, WHILE MODELS FAVOR THE PLATTE/LOUP RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH 10 AM TOMORROW. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, EXPECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER FOR WHAT COULD BE ONE
OF THOSE PEAK EVENINGS TO BE OUTSIDE.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
BY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BE SWEPT UP INTO THE MID/UPPER FLOW AND DEAMPLIFY. AS THIS RIDGE
TRIES PUSHING EASTWARD, ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE FELT
IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA AT ALL, AND DOMINATING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SET FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. OUR SOLE CHANCES FOR RAIN OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY COME THIS WEEKEND AS PRECIPITATION
TRIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES TRYING TO PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH A WARM FRONT AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
850 MB HELPING SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LOW, AS ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE INCREASINGLY HAMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE AS IT
MOVES EAST.
WE'LL START SEEING TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO CLIMB BY MONDAY
FROM RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S BY MID-
WEEK. MODELS DRIVE THE TEMPERATURES UP LARGELY IN LINE WITH
ANOTHER BUILDING AND INCEASINGLY-BROAD RIDGE THAT LOOKS LIKE
IT'LL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A DECK OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
EASTERN NE AND SOUTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 08-11Z. PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRENCE. A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (20% CHANCE), THOUGH
THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE
IF NEEDED.
FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AND IMPROVING. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED BY 16-18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AND UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...WOOD
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