053
FXUS63 KOAX 310938
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
438 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECENT MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED FOG THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG SOUTH DAKOTA
STATE LINE.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM ARIZONA MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED SMOKE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WHILE SOME
SURFACE SMOKE MAY SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
- THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (30-50%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 435 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
IS REFLECTED IN A RELATIVELY QUIET H5 PATTERN. AN UNDERSTATED
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES HAS MADE SOME PROGRESS EAST, BUT WE'RE
STILL REVELING IN THE COOLER AIR THAT ARRIVED IN THE AREA OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE FRONT DELINEATING THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THESE VERY DIFFERENT AIR MASSES HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS BREAK
FROM THE HEAT AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND H8 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY.
FOG HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING THANKS IN PART TO
THE CONSISTENT WIND SPEEDS OF 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS OBSCURED BY CLOUDCOVER TIED TO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MINOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS
CONVECTION IS SHALLOW AND OFFERS NO SEVERE THREAT, BUT RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES. FREMONT REPORTED NEARLY AN INCH
IN AN HOUR AS THE CELL SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. GUIDANCE ENDS THE
ACTIVITY AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT EXPECT CAMS TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS
LITTLE MCV. REGARDLESS, THIS AREA OF VERTICAL MOTION WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH AND WILL LEAVE THE AREA DRY BY MID- DAY TODAY AS
SKIES CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR QUITE AS EFFECTIVELY AS HOPED WITH RAP
SUGGESTING ARIZONA WILDFIRE SMOKE FINDING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
CORN BELT THIS AFTERNOON. IOWA'S PRIMARY CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE
SOME NEAR SURFACE SMOKE. IT TOOK THE CIRCUITOUS ROUTE FROM
ARIZONA THROUGH CANADA, 'ROUND THE SFC HIGH IN MINNESOTA, AND
MAY FIND ITS WAY INTO WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA FROM THE
EAST BY THIS EVENING. AIR QUALITY IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED SMOKE, WHICH WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT NEBRASKA, WILL
APPROACH AS THE CROW FLIES AND WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE THIS
EVENING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK AT 80F
OR LESS.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, STRUGGLING TO HIT
80F EACH DAY AND FALLING SHY OF EARLY AUGUST HIGHS BY ABOUT TEN
DEGREES. THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES FALLS APART BEFORE BRINGING
ANY WARMER TEMPS HERE. THE SHORTWAVE KNOCKING THAT RIDGE DOWN
WILL BRING A CHANCE (30-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, BUT POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER
LOOK MOST LIKELY OVER THE FRONT RANGE / HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA/COLORADO. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM MULTIPLE
SOURCES SUGGEST THE SAME THING. EXPECT TO WATCH STORMS WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND ENTER INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR.
NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES DO FINALLY CLOSE IN ON SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
AMPLIFIES AN ELEVATED RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEEK, EXPECT
SERIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS MAKING A RUN AT 90F BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. SOME PEOPLE ARE HOPING TO SQUEEZE IN A FEW
MORE HOT SUMMER DAYS. AS SOMEONE WHOSE SCHOOL DAYS WRAPPED UP
LONG AGO, I DO NOT COUNT MYSELF AMONG THEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
A DECK OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
EASTERN NE AND SOUTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 08-11Z. PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRENCE. A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (20% CHANCE), THOUGH
THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE
IF NEEDED.
FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP AND IMPROVING. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED BY 16-18Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AND UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...WOOD
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