223
FXUS63 KOAX 010732
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
232 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SURFACED SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OUT WEST AND IN CANADA HAVE LED
TO DEGRADED AIR QUALITY WITH AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IN PLACE
THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING.
- THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (30-50%).
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES TO WARM TO 100 DEGREES
MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE WE STAY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA APART FROM A FEW HIGH
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS BROUGHT
WILDFIRE SMOKE DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA TO AROUND
4-7SM. WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND
THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE SAW A FEW
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN YESTERDAY MORNING. SO FAR NO SIGNS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER. TODAY EXPECT VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK AS
DAYTIME HEATING STARTS TO GENERATE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALLOWING THE SMOKE TO LIFT. SUBSIDENCE STILL IN PLACE, HOWEVER,
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON NDEE KEEPS AN AIR
QUALITY ALERT IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY UNDER-DOING
TEMPERATURES SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF MANY SPOTS HIT 80 AGAIN
TODAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE,
CORRESPONDING TO THE SURFACE HIGH GENERATING THE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA. AS WE GO INTO THIS AFTERNOON WE'LL SEE THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FLATTEN BACK OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THIS, EXPECT STORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AREAS OF NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON TRAVELING EASTWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW STORMS MAY JUST GET INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE FIZZLING OUT IN
SOME OF THE REMNANT SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN.
OVER THE WEEKEND WE SEE A RIDGE BUILD UP OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION, AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, THE HIGH TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME TO BRING
STORM CHANCES BACK TO EASTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES INTERACTING WITH THE
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOW-80S.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WE SEE THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LEADING TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED
NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN PLAINS, SO THE FACT OUR ENSEMBLES SHOW LOW PRECIP
CHANCES EACH NIGHT MAKES SENSE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND ABILITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
THIS FAR OUT IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD RIDGE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WILDFIRE
SMOKE SETTLES NEAR THE SURFACE. A DECK OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF
NEEDED. OTHERWISE, A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST, GRADUALLY
TAKING ON A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...WOOD
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