653
FXUS63 KOAX 031717
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1217 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE LIGHT, AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ALL DAY RAIN OUT.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMOKE COULD AFFECT SENSITIVE
GROUPS.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE A
LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA
PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. THOSE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY TODAY,
WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE
REGION, IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. DYNAMIC COOLING
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS (30-50% POPS), ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. AS WE BEGAN DISCUSSING YESTERDAY,
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY, MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IA BY AROUND NOON, AND EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT IN ND ARE REPORTING A SWATH OF
2-5 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE SMOKE, SO THAT'S SOMETHING
WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON TODAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SMOKE
IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF THE AREA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST NE AND
WEST-CENTRAL IA, TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS BORDER.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAKS ARE
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY, WITH ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST ON THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A MORE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BEING ADVECTED INTO THE MID MO VALLEY FROM
THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THAT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH A RESIDUAL POOL OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
SUPPORT A NARROW AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IA INTO NORTHEAST
NE. PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR, WITH SEVERAL OF THE CAMS DEVELOPING UPDRAFT-HELICITY
(UH) TRACKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SIMULATED STORMS. SO, IT
APPEARS THERE COULD BE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ASSUMING
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
(20-30% POPS) ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY (20% CHANCE) FOR LINGERING SHOWERS
IN SOUTHEAST NE ON FRIDAY MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AND SIMILAR TO
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TODAY, SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
WILDFIRE SMOKE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. AFTER A COOL START (FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S),
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S. BY SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN TO THE 70S.
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO LIGHTNING DETECTED. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
THAT KLNK IS DONE WITH THE SHOWERS, RAIN BEING JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE AERODROME. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS.
THOSE WINDS TAPER AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
WILDFIRE SMOKE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. VISIBILITY MAY SLIP TO 4-6
MILES AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE VISIBILITY IMPACTS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME, BUT
MAY BE ADDED IN THIS EVENING'S TAF UPDATE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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