064
FXUS63 KOAX 031959
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
259 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A MOSTLY DRY SEVEN DAY FORECAST.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMOKE COULD AFFECT
SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
INSTEAD OF THE LOWER-80S THAT THE CALENDAR IMPLIES, TODAY'S
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60S AND LOWER-70S CONTINUE THE STREAK OF COOL
WEATHER, MAKING THIS DAY TWELVE-IN-A-ROW OF SUB-SEASONAL TEMPS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAXIMUM AT H5 HAS PUSHED INTO
THE AREA AND IS DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. IT HAS
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS , AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS, YET TO PRODUCE ANY
LIGHTNING, TO CONTINUE EAST AND BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-EASTERNMOST
CWA BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY; THOUGH IT ISN'T
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOG MAY
BE LIMITED TO MISSOURI, BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO CRATER
AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS, WILL KEEP AN EYE OPEN FOR ANY SIGNS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. THOUGH, TO BE FAIR, REDUCED VISIBILITY
TONIGHT WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY. VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY HAVE BEEN REGULARLY REPORTING 4-7
MILES. THE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE WILL ONLY BE CONCENTRATED WITH
THE POST- FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK INVERSION EXPECTED TO SET
UP. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SMOKE SO FAR.
HAVE ADDED SOME EXTRA "CLOUD COVER" TO THE GRIDS BASED ON THE
SMOKE AND HAVE FORECAST SOME SURFACE SMOKE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST (ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT COULD BRING A NEW ROUND OF SMOKE). FOR THIS REASON, THE
NEBRASKA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY IS WORKING UP AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH 11 AM
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY
OFFICIALLY THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER, BUT THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME OF OUR THUNDERSTORMS TO GROW STRONG OR EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE.
WHIPPING UP THIS CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE CUTOFF LOW OVER ONTARIO. THIS H8 SHORTWAVE WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BRING SOME DECENT HEIGHT FALLS
AND A NARROW WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON / EVENING
HOURS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE BRIEFLY STEEP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO THE POWERFUL ELEVATED CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z NAM
NEST HAS BACKED OFF THE PREVIOUS RUN'S UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS,
LESSENING CONFIDENCE IN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. I STUCK WITH
20-40% POPS FOR MOST, WITH BEST CHANCES OF STRONG STORMS NORTH
OF HWY 30, AND WEAKER STORMS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TROFING IN PLACE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 70F, RUNNING
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER ON
FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE AND THE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST ALL
WEEKEND. A FEW LOW-LYING SPOTS MAY FALL BELOW 40F BY SUNRISE.
HEAD NORTH A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES AND YOU COULD FIND SOME EARLY
MORNING FROST.
NEXT WEEK
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE H5 PATTERN BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. DAYS 8-9 HINT AT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND CLIMBING
HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD BRING WARMER TEMPS. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY
CPC'S 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO LIGHTNING DETECTED. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
THAT KLNK IS DONE WITH THE SHOWERS, RAIN BEING JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE AERODROME. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS.
THOSE WINDS TAPER AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
WILDFIRE SMOKE SETTLES INTO THE AREA. VISIBILITY MAY SLIP TO 4-6
MILES AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
THE VISIBILITY IMPACTS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME, BUT
MAY BE ADDED IN THIS EVENING'S TAF UPDATE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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