895
FXUS63 KOAX 041737
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1237 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE,
WITH A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS POTENTIALLY DIPPING IN THE UPPER 30S AT
SOME LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA; ON THE
IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO
THE MID MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NE
THIS AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT.
THE INFLUX OF A COOLER, CANADIAN AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 40S EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, AS WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, DEWPOINTS WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE INCREASE WILL
COMBINE WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO CREATE
A NARROW AXIS AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG) IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST CAM DATA INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST SD, SOUTHWEST MN, AND NORTHWEST IA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MODELS DIFFER IN
HOW FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST THE STORMS BUILD ALONG THE FRONT INTO
OUR AREA OWING TO THE WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT. GIVEN THAT UNCERTAINTY, THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY LOW (20-30%) POPS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO, GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT TO FORM AND SUSTAIN DEEP
UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH ANY MORE INTENSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE MODELS INDICATE THE WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERING IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONCENTRATIONS DECREASING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST NE FRIDAY MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED, MID-LEVEL
RIDGE INITIAL OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EAST
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
COAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS EAST OF THAT FEATURE
DRAWING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.
THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EASTARD-BUILDING RIDGE, SUPPORTING RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD IS THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME 80S
APPEAR POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TERMINALS FOR THIS
TAF CYCLE. TERMINALS MAY SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS, ESPECIALLY AT KOFK THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, CHANGING THE WIND DIRECTION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING AT
KOFK AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, WITH DEVELOPMENT THEN POSSIBLE
(AROUND 20-25% CHANCE) MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KLNK TO KOMA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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