124
FXUS63 KOAX 061934
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
234 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S.
- A WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
(30-50%), WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
LOWER-END CHANCES (AROUND 25%) LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SETUP IS DRIVING
PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA,
USHERING IN COOLER AIR. AT THE SURFACE, A CORRIDOR OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING
PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH CALM NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR EVENING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S, WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS
POSSIBLY TOUCHING THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES AT OMAHA AND LINCOLN
LOOK TO STAY JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS (OMAHA: 43 DEGREES
SET IN 1956, LINCOLN: 42 DEGREES, SET IN 2024).
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY AND SIMULATION SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS DRIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT A NOTABLE DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, MAKING SPRINKLE OR VIRGA THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME.
AS SUCH, POPS REMAIN BELOW 15%. VERY PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM IN
WIND PROTECTED AREAS SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE SPARSE AND SHALLOW.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S.
MONDAY...
BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WHILE ALSO OPENING FOR THE DOOR FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS (POPS 15-30%). IN
ITS WAKE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA,
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF MORNING CONVECTION
CLEARS IN TIME FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION, HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE MONDAY COULD TRIGGER RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WEAK CAP, THOUGH
GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER IT BREAKS. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE, MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS
A LIMITING FACTOR. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 30-50% BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, WITH DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS TIED TO SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATER IN THE WEEK
REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES.
PERIODIC POPS OF 15-30% ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A CUTOFF LOW PIVOTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OVERALL. THE WEEK DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT,
WITH DRY PERIODS OUTPACING WET ONES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS BY AT 5000-8000 FT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM AND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING CLOCKWISE TO NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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