767
FXUS63 KOAX 071631
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S. WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING (15-30% CHANCE). HIGHER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT (30-60% CHANCE) WITH A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
- OFF AND ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (AROUND 15-30%) WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
TO OUR EAST, STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH IA AND INTO
MO AND KS, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCKED IN AND
DOMINATING THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO TANK FAIRLY QUICKLY, WITH READINGS AS OF 3 AM IN
THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE ALSO QUITE
LOW IN MANY LOCATIONS, SO COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL START TO
PUSH EAST TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
THIS SHOULD GAIN US AROUND 4-5 DEGREES ON TEMPERATURES FROM
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN THE ID/WY/UT BORDER AREA WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH NE AND KS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DRAGGING A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WE'LL SEE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CENTRAL NE
INTO WESTERN KS WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST, BUT THINK WE'LL
SEE SOME LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED STORMS
CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST NE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AT THE VERY
LEAST, WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD
SOMEWHAT LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR POTENTIAL STORM REDEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A PLUME OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS EDGING INTO
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTING INTO THE AREA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME. AND WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, 30 KTS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME
DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH AN OUTSIDE
SHOT (CURRENTLY LESS THAN 5%, BUT NOT 0) OF A SEVERE STORM.
STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, BUT WE'LL HAVE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SLIDE THROUGH AND BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. AT
THIS POINT, SYSTEMS LOOK FAIRLY WEAK, BUT THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD ON EXACT TIMING SO GENERALLY HAVE OFF AND ON 15-30%
CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE
RIDGING WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME WARMER WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ANY DAYS WITH
PRECIP COULD END UP BEING A BIT COOLER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 8-12 KTS,
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS BY AT 6000-8000 FT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
PRIMARILY NEAR KOMA AND KLNK. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE (20%
CHANCE) IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...WOOD
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