083
FXUS63 KOAX 072306
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 80S THIS WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING (20-40%) WITH
HIGHER CHANCES MONDAY EVENING INTO THE THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
(30-50%), WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.
- INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (15-30%) PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EASTWARD,
ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THIS SHIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
CLIMB A BIT HIGHER, GENERALLY SETTLING IN THE 50S, THANKS TO A
WARMER AIRMASS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER PROVIDING INSULATION.
THE RIDGE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO
ROUND ITS PERIPHERY AND BRING INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
FIRST ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA PIVOTS INTO THE REGION, SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WILL LIKELY DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH THE MORNING. POPS CURRENTLY
PEAK AT 20-40% BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE, LIFTING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW
60S. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND POTENTIALLY THE LOW 80S WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW A CORRIDOR OF
MODEST MLCAPE (1500-2500 J/KG) TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NE. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL ALSO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS WILL REMAIN LIMITED,
BUT SKIES WILL LIKELY TAKE ON A MILK HAZY AS SMOKE LINGERS ALOFT.
BY THE EVENING, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR (25-
30 KTS) APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND CAPPING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDING LEAVE STORM INITIATION
AND COVERAGE UNCERTAIN. CAM GUIDANCE KEEPS STORM COVERAGE SPARSE,
WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE AREA DRY UNTIL THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AN OUTCOME THAT DOESN'T APPEAR TOO
UNREASONABLE. SHOULD A STORM MANAGE TO DEVELOP, IT COULD BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH THE
PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW (LESS THAN 5%). THEREFORE, POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE TRENDED DOWN (15-30%).
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE AREA, AIDED BY A 25-30 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ THAT MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 30-50% OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT,
ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, WITH WILDFIRE
SMOKE ONCE AGAIN LINGERING ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. DAILY FLUCTUATIONS TIED TO CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATER IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST WINDOW FOR DRIER WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING 15-30% POPS. POPS THEN INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A CUT-OFF LOW PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND PERIODIC POPS
(15-30%).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
SWIFTER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE. EXPECT 30 KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT FL010. THIS ISN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO MARK AS
LLWS IN THE TAFS, BUT IS ABOUT THE ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST.
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY, THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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