200
FXUS63 KOAX 081042
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-40% CHANCE OF STORMS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING
WITH A LINGERING 15% CHANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
- HIGHER STORM CHANCES ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
(40-60%) WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION,
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POCKETS OF
2-3+ INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE (5%
CHANCE).
- COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (15-30%) PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES, THOUGH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND INTO WESTERN NE/KS AND LEADING
TO SOME SHOWERS. FARTHER EAST, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE GOING UP ALONG IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NE INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL KS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN MOST GUIDANCE WAS
SUGGESTING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHEAST NE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LEAD TO BRIEF
DOWNPOURS IN SOME SPOTS, THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES QUICKLY AS
YOU GO EAST, SO THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, BUT MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS
THEM PRETTY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. FOR NOW, CARRYING A 15-20% CHANCE
FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM. OTHERWISE, EXPECT STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE WITH A
PLUME OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS EDGING INTO EASTERN NE BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL
SHOWERS, WE EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT INSTABILITY, THOUGH 08.12Z HREF MEAN MUCAPE VALUES STILL
SIT IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77 BY
THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL FORCING ISN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG,
THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STILL SLIDING THROUGH TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 25-30 KTS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED AND YIELD A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER OR EVEN
SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS
REVEAL QUITE A BIT OF CAPPING TO OVERCOME WITH LATEST CAMS
SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
WE'LL MOST LIKELY BE WAITING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND WE SEE A LITTLE MORE
CONVERGENCE IN OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5" AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 3500 M, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CAMS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH HINTS AT POCKETS OF 2-3". AS A RESULT,
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT, BUT
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR FAIRLY LOW (5%).
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT LOOKS TO EXIT BY
MID- DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY
AND START OUR RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH WIDESPREAD 80S BY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WE'LL ALSO HAVE SOME INCOMING SMOKE TO
DEAL WITH (MOST LIKELY REMAINING ALOFT) THAT COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. DESPITE THE RIDGING IN PLACE,
WE'LL SEE CONTINUED OFF AND ON PRECIP CHANCES AS VARIOUS BITS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUND A CUTOFF LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND SLIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE. UNFORTUNATELY THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES,
THOUGH WE'RE CURRENTLY FAVORED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (10-15% CHANCE OF PRECIP). HIGHER LOOK TO ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT (20%) AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (20-40%). AT
THIS POINT, IT DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPACTFUL, BUT PROBABLY WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 5000-7000 FT. THAT SAID, WE WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN NORTHEAST NE THIS MORNING, INCLUDING LNK WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITY UNDER THE STRONGEST ONES.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THOSE PRETTY SPOTTY. HIGHER
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LIKELY ARRIVE AFTER 05Z WITH SOME
QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THEY DEVELOP. MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LNK AND OMA COULD BOTH BE IMPACTED SOMEWHERE IN THE
07-11Z WINDOW (50% CHANCE), BUT A FEW MODELS STILL KEEP THEM
BOTH DRY, SO DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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