766
FXUS63 KOAX 091730
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS SHOULD
EXIT BY MID-MORNING.
- HIGHS RETURN TO THE AND LOWS TO THE 60S INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH EXPECT
MUCH MORE DRY TIME THAN WET. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) ARE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A LINE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WAS PUSHING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST NE AS OF AROUND 2:30 AM. HAVEN'T SEEN ANY
OBSERVED WIND GUSTS AS OF YET, BUT RADAR DATA INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND OBSERVED PRECIP DATA
UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS SHOWING A QUICK 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN AS IT MOVED THROUGH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS
PARTICULAR LINE IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, SO THE FLOODING THREAT
REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THAT SAID, COULD STILL SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH SOME SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF
2" OF RAINFALL, SO NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT
POTENTIAL JUST YET, ESPECIALLY IN ANY MORE URBAN AREAS. OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE, 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER, BUT IT TAPERS OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THERE. SHEAR IS ALSO
WEAKER AS YOU GO EAST, SO IN GENERAL THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT THIS MORNING.
PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT SOUTHEAST BY AROUND NOON WITH DRY WEATHER
AND DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER FAVORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN. ASSUMING CLOUDS GET OUT
OF HERE AS EXPECTED, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A
FEW 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT, NAEFS AND
EPS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90TH+ PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY BOTH DAYS WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS (FOR WHAT THEY'RE
WORTH THIS FAR OUT) SHOWING SOME DECENT MIXING. THIS COULD LEAD
TO EVEN WARMER TEMPS ASSUMING THAT MIXING PANS OUT. OF COURSE,
TEMPERATURES COULD BE IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES AS
WE'LL HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SET UP IN THE AREA MOST DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH. CURRENTLY,
GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE DISTURBANCES WEAK WITH PRECIP LOOKING
FAIRLY SPOTTY AND LIGHT, THOUGH THERE STILL ARE SOME QUESTIONS
ON EXACT TIMING. THAT SAID, EXPECT MUCH MORE DRY TIME THAN WET
IN EASTERN NE AND SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES (20-40%)
START TO WORK BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A LARGER
SCALE TROUGH/POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW START TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST. IN ADDITION, STRONGER
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SLIDE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, WE'LL LOSE A FEW DEGREES ON TEMPS,
BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH CONTINUED
SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SCT TO BKN CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH KLNK
BEING THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH ACTUAL RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE DUE TO
HIGHER COVERAGE AT FL029. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER DARK. THE MAIN
THING TO WATCH WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD AFFECT AT
LEAST NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS.
FOR KLNK AND KOMA, A CONSERVATIVE START IS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
ISSUANCE, HOPING FOR A CONTINUED/STRONGER SIGNAL BEFORE GOING
ALL-IN AND INCLUDING IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS -- LARGELY FROM
10 TO 14Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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