510
FXUS63 KOAX 112306
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. A BIT COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND TUESDAY
NIGHT (30-60%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT:
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATE THE AMPLIFIED-RIDGE PORTION OF A BROADER-SCALE OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH SOME
SUGGESTION OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CO.
THAT UPPER-AIR PATTERN HAS FOSTERED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
CYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST CO, WHICH IN TURN IS CONTRIBUTING TO
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH 2 PM
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CO DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE INTO NE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OCCURRING ALONG THAT FEATURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
FRIDAY (15-25% POPS). FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED, MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EAST THIS PERIOD, IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A PROMINENT, MID-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST.
THAT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DEEPENING OF A LEE TROUGH OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS EDGING EAST INTO
THE MID MO VALLEY. THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL THAT ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
CONVECTION ROOTED WITHIN A MOIST LAYER SURMOUNTING A DRY,
ELEVATED-MIXED-LAYER AIR MASS. WHILE THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-15% POPS, THOSE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
THAT MODEL SIGNAL PERSISTS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN HEADLINE THIS PERIOD IS THE WARM WEATHER.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BOTH DAYS,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MID 90S IN AREAS THAT MIX A LITTLE
DEEPER. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE: OMAHA/96,
LINCOLN/96, NORFOLK/98. SATURDAY'S RECORDS ARE LIKELY OUT OF
REACH: OMAHA/101, LINCOLN/102, AND NORFOLK/99. DEWPOINTS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY HIGH, AND MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH RELATED HEAT
INDICES REMAINING BELOW 100 AT MOST LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK:
A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS OF
30-60% ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEPARATE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE VARIOUS MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE SYSTEMS INDICATE A LOW-
PROBABILITY (GENERALLY LESS THAN 15%) SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY'S READINGS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25KT. WINDS RELAX OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH A 10% CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER,
PRIMARILY AROUND KLNK THROUGH 02Z. OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARER SKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS AGAIN INCREASING, GUSTING TO 20-25KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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