143
FXUS63 KOAX 120811
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. A BIT COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND TUESDAY
NIGHT (30-60%). A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRUGGLED TO
HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY APPROACHED THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
BY 2 AM, TEMPERATURES REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM, IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
THE MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LARGE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, LIKELY IMPEDING THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION'S ABILITY TO REACH THE SURFACE.
BUT IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD AT LEAST
EXPERIENCE A FEW SPRINKLES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER
RIDGE EDGES EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, POTENTIALLY HAMPERED BY
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, INTO THE LOW 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S, KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING PAST THE
LOW TO MID 90S. FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE TYPICALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. CURRENT RECORDS FOR
FRIDAY STAND AT 96 FOR OMAHA AND LINCOLN, AND 98 AT NORFOLK. RECORDS
FOR SATURDAY STILL LOOK UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN, AT 101 FOR OMAHA,
102 FOR LINCOLN, AND 99 AT NORFOLK.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY, AS A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS SWEEPS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RISE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. SPC PEGS
OUR AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY (5-10%),
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST 30
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT AND AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE IN THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY, AND REBOUND
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, TAMPERING TEMPERATURES FURTHER, EVENTUALLY INTO THE
70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN, AS MACHINE LEARNING PROBS BRING ANOTHER 5-10%
CHANCE TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING HAVE WEAKENED TO AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS. WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12-18Z, BUT BASES
SHOULD STAY HIGH AROUND 10,000FT. DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE,
POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THESE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS AROUND
10%. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN, THIS TIME OUT OF THE SOUTH,
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. THESE SHOULD RELAX AGAIN
TO AROUND 10 KT FRIDAY EVENING AROUND 01Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...MCCOY
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