609
FXUS63 KOAX 141816
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
116 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A
FEW OF THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST NE, WITH A BELT OF STRONGER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND IT'S EASTERN PERIPHERY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NE SO FAR TODAY, AND
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BAND WILL DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NE THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION, THINNER CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S, WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, IS RESULTING IN MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, WITH THE CAMS
INDICATING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THAT FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. OUR 18Z
SOUNDING, SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOWEST 3 KM, WITH GENERALLY A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE
FEATURING MODEST AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THESE
PARAMETERS, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-65
MPH. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTER SIZE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FARTHER WEST, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL
NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH THAT ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NE BY 9-10 PM. THOSE STORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED, UPPER-AIR SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE
IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW. SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH/LOW, CONTRIBUTING DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL (60-80% POPS) WILL
EXIST ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER VORTICITY
MAXIMUM PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS A LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY, WITH
READINGS COOLING INTO THE 70S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NE
AS OF 1645Z, WITH LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THAT ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS INTO
EASTERN NE. THE MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL, ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE, WITH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA
AT ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW.
GIVEN THAT UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ONLY INCLUDE PREVAILING
VCSH AT KOFK, WHERE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY.
HOWEVER, TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED AT KOMA AND KOFK WHERE
-TSRA APPEAR PROBABLE AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE DESIGNATED TIME
WINDOW. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING, WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE
FL040.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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