631
FXUS63 KOAX 151938
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
238 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
HIGHS RETURN TO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER-
SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. CLOSER TO HOME, THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA THAT A REMNANT MCV IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN KS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF SHOWER IN PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
SD IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90; SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-20% POPS) DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND:
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER WY TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL EDGE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH THE SYSTEM
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THAT UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (MAXIMUM POPS OF 60-80%)
WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RECURRING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SOME SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST --PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY EVENING-- WITH STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE, BUT WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS, AND/OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THAT ACTIVITY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER OWING TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ON WEDNESDAY
COOLING INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 12 KT WILL DIMINISH BY 16/00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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