881
FXUS63 KOAX 171123
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED OFF-AND-ON STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THIS
MORNING, BUT SCATTERED STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN UNLIKELY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK IN THE 70S, WITH
80S RETURNING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WAS
DRIFTING EVERY SO SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT ONE OF THE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE VORT MAXIMUMS WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TWO SEPARATE WAVES CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO AND THE YELLOWSTONE REGION WILL ROTATE AROUND EACH
OTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST.
CURRENT WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DRIVEN BY THIS
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. EARLY THIS MORNING, THE FRONT HAS BEEN MODIFIED
SIGNIFICANTLY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BUT GENERALLY STRETCHES FROM
NORTHWEST KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE, AND THEN UP TOWARD THE SD/IA
STATE LINE. THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
WAVE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BOTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT AS WELL AS IN PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
OF 1000 J/KG IS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. THOSE MU PARCELS ARE WEAKLY OR EVEN
UNCAPPED, HENCE THE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THERE WERE A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS THIS EVENING, INSTABILITY HAS WANED A BIT
AND BELIEVE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE A LINEAR SEGMENT
CROSSING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NE WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME WIND IF IT CAN FORCE SOME MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CAPE PROFILES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SEEM TO FAVOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH WEAKENING
INSTABILITY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST, BUT CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOME WIND.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE CENTER OF THE WAVE APPROACHES,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE OF SOME DESTABILIZATION
AROUND MID AFTERNOON WHICH MAY REINVIGORATE CONVECTION (ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF IT MAY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA), AND MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUSED ZONE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE SHORT WAVE. HODOGRAPHS IN THIS AREA HAVE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TURNING. WOULD CALL THIS A HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL SCENARIO FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS, BASED LARGELY ON
THE EXISTENCE OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE...BUT IF STRONG UPDRAFTS DEVELOP NEAR
THE UPPER CIRCULATION, SHEAR PROFILES MAY FAVOR SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH HAIL OR EVEN A NON-ZERO TORNADO POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
THE ABUNDANCE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT IN
THE PREDOMINANT CIRCULATION TRACKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NE OR SD
BY THURSDAY MORNING AND LIFTING NORTH WHILE THE YELLOWSTONE VORT
ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE AND EJECTS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION PERHAPS BEING IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
TRACK THROUGH. LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING THEN LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
INTENSITY OF THE STORMS WILL LIE IN THE DETAILS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, BUT COULD AGAIN SEE A FEW STRONG ONES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR A STORM MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS, BUT WILL FINALLY SEE A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE BY THE
WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY, BUT WITH A FEW
LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN. BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN WHEN A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF UPPER RIDGING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SPOTTY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WITH
STORMS OUT THERE THAT MAY IMPACT SOME SITES. IN ADDITION, A
"MAIN" LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST, THOUGH EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
POTENTIAL TS REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INCLUDING
OFK, SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP THERE FROM 19-21Z. STORMS LOOK A
LITTLE MORE SPOTTY FARTHER SOUTH, SO NO MENTION AT OMA/LNK, BUT
IF THEY DO DEVELOP, EXPECT SOMEWHERE 21-00Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
SOME VARIABILITY AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH/PETERSEN
AVIATION...CA
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