929
FXUS63 KOAX 071025
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS BACK
IN THE 80S BY THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES MIDWEEK HAVE EVAPORATED (FIGURATIVELY).
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING IN RICHARDSON COUNTY ABOUT TO CLEAR THE AREA. AREAS
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED HAVE FOR THE MOST PART ALREADY DROPPED
INTO THE 40S. SOME SPOTS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FROST IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH HELPING TO KEEP ANY
FOG FROM DEVELOPING, BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN FOR SOME PATCHY STUFF NEAR DAYBREAK.
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A REX BLOCK SET UP OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A REX BLOCK IS A HIGH CIRCULATION LOCKED IN
NORTH OF A LOW CIRCULATION CREATING A "BLOCK" IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN. IT USUALLY TAKE QUITE A BIT TO KNOCK THIS PATTERN
LOOSE, BUT AN ALEUTIAN LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACNW IS SUCCESSFUL,
KEEPING THIS BLOCK FROM STICKING AROUND TOO LONG. WHAT HAPPENS,
THOUGH, IS THAT THE RIDGE GETS SHOVED EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BLOCKS DO GENERALLY CREATE AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WHICH
DIVERGES IN DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS BEYOND A FEW DAYS HAS BEEN LOW. FOR INSTANCE, EARLIER
RUNS WERE PREDICTING A CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A DISTURBANCE
MIDWEEK, BUT THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO IOWA AND CONTINUES TO
TREND DOWNWARD IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE THE ALEUTIAN LOW DEEPEN
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SERVING TO
AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS WHAT
LEADS TO THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 80 AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY THE DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST FINALLY STARTS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
ROCKIES, BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
PREDICTED TO MOVE THROUGH STARTING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THIS, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ON
MONDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH THIS MORNING WILL HOLD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z AS WE SEE THEM SHIFT FROM
NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 01-02Z. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SWILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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