328
FXUS63 KOAX 091735
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR A
FEW MORNING SPRINKLES.
- ANOTHER WEAK FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
- A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. CAMS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS
THIS MORNING BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER
THAT THEY WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING TO REACH
THE GROUND. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES,
ENDING AROUND NOON. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID-70S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES, BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT BEING DAMPENED BY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TONIGHT WE SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
BRING A FRONT THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO NORTHERLY FOR
FRIDAY. SOME CAMS SUGGEST A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP,
BUT AGAIN DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING TO
ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.
SATURDAY WE SEE THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST MAKE A PUSH
INLAND AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS AMPLIFICATION LEADS TO THE BREAKDOWN AND
SUBSEQUENT PUSH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WITH THIS, WE SEE MOISTURE START TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION, INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED, WITH
HIGHS NOW FORECAST TO ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID
70S SOUTH.
A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH ON-AND-OFF CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. DESPITE A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES SATURDAY NIGHT, THE REGIME CHANGE REALLY DOESN'T
KICK IN UNTIL A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WE WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK SPARSE ALONG THE
FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WE SEE THE REAMPLIFICATION OF THE EARLIER
RIDGE, THIS TIME OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS WE
WILL SEE A STRONG JET STREAK MOVE OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO MORE
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH, LIKELY NOT PICKED UP UPON BY
THE MODELS AS OF YET. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW
(20-30% AT TIMES), BUT THIS IS LIKELY MORE TO DO WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS STRETCH
WILL STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, EVENTUALLY
TURNING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KBIE TO KCBF TO
KHNR FROM 07Z TO 11Z. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS REACHING KOMA
AND KLNK REMAINS WELL BELOW 50% FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS
TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE SCT TO BKN
CEILINGS AROUND 4KFT TO 6KFT.
FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 11Z AT KOMA AND KLNK, BUT GIVEN WIDE RANGE
OF SOLUTIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE, HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR
WITH MENTIONS OF BR. EXPECT REFINEMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS WITH
UPCOMING ISSUANCES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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