429
FXUS63 KOAX 092022
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 15 TO 30% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
- ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A 15 TO
30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
20Z H5 RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO PROMINENT FEATURES: A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND A 546DAM CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SHORTWAVE HAS HELPED DAMPEN THE RIDGE,
RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERN TO SLIGHTLY ZONAL H5 FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC, OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW NEAR THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY, GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUDS AND AMPLE MIXING INTO A 25 TO 30 KT LLJ, EXPECT THE GUSTINESS
TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA,
AND THE LOW 80S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK TO THE EAST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY
REACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MIDNIGHT AND WESTERN IOWA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. DESPITE RATHER POOR QG FORCING IN THE MIDLEVELS, INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H8 ALONG WITH
ANY SFC CONVERGENCE FROM THE FRONT MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 500 TO
1,000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED ALOFT AT H8, SO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST SUITE OF
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AFTER 05Z OVER WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 10Z. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS SLIGHTLY FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 15 TO 20%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS PEAK AT 30% OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 08Z. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION, WITH NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, AND THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60F FOR THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND THE RESULTANT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOWS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S ALONG WESTERN IOWA, AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE 544DAM CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH
EAST INTO THE WEST COAST, DIGGING THE H5 TROF WHILE DISPLACING THE
CENTER OF THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FARTHER EAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL EJECT FROM THE TROF INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS,
LEADING TO A FEW ROUNDS OF POPS ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (15-30% CHANCE). HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS CLOUD COVER
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES FILTERS IN.
BY SUNDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROF WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE ROCKIES,
INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. H8 LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. AMPLE MIXING INTO A 40 TO 50 KT H8 LLJ COUPLED WITH THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SFC LOW WILL LEAD TO GUSTY 30
TO 35 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. 1000-850 MB LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY SUNDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH NBM
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS ONLY 15 TO 20% CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. A FEW
SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THEY
RIDE THE TOP OF AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS.
THESE WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW END 15 TO 20% CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA BOTH DAYS. THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
AGAIN, WITH CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS HINTING AT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE START OF THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, EVENTUALLY
TURNING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR KBIE TO KCBF TO
KHNR FROM 07Z TO 11Z. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SHOWERS REACHING KOMA
AND KLNK REMAINS WELL BELOW 50% FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS
TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE SCT TO BKN
CEILINGS AROUND 4KFT TO 6KFT.
FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 11Z AT KOMA AND KLNK, BUT GIVEN WIDE RANGE
OF SOLUTIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE, HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR
WITH MENTIONS OF BR. EXPECT REFINEMENTS AND ADJUSTMENTS WITH
UPCOMING ISSUANCES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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