563
FXUS63 KOAX 101944
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80F NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
- 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- MORE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING
AND EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
19Z H5 PATTERN SHOWS A STRONG 553DAM CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FEATURE AND ITS SFC LOW HAS
DRAGGED A COLD FRONT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH LATEST METARS SHOWING THE FRONT LOCATION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1024 MB SFC
HIGH SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO OUR QUIET WEATHER. FOR
THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR 80F NEAR
THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AREAS. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
FOR WESTERN IOWA WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AS LESS
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THERE.
THE CLOSED 549DAM LOW WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON, AMPLIFYING THE H5 RIDGE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY, AND A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROF TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN INCREASED QG FORCING WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL POINT TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE CLIPPING FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
CAM GUIDANCE TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AFTER 13Z
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW RUNS ALSO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE OMAHA METRO AREA, BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR THAT PRECIP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS ALSO RATHER LOW,
AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS AS PROFILES STRUGGLE TO SATURATE.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POP PERCENTAGES A BIT TO 15 TO 20% ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY.
THE SFC HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY, WHILE TO
OUR WEST, THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROF WILL HELP INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND NEAR EASTERN MONTANA.
THESE FEATURES WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHILE ALOFT
AT H8, A 30 TO 35 KT LLJ OVERSPREADS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE
AREA. HOW MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM WE MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN IS
QUESTIONABLE AS WE'LL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS, BUT STILL EXPECT
TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE LONGWAVE
TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER 15 TO
30% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE H8
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT
PROVIDED BY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. SO, WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN POP CHANCES (20 TO 40%) ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL ALSO WARM TO THE LOW
TO MID 80S AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEPER
MIXING OCCURS. THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SFC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL 15 TO 30% CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A 15 TO 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND FOR WEDNESDAY
ONWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE
AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS AND FROM THE
NORTH NORTHEAST, GRADUALLY TURNING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAY
IMPACT FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z, BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD STAY WELL NORTHWEST OF KOFK. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AFTER 14Z AT KOFK AND KLNK. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ARRIVE AT KOMA AS WELL BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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