856
FXUS63 KOAX 300350
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER (40-50% CHANCE).
IF IT DEVELOPS IN AREAS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, A FEW SLICK
SPOTS COULD RESULT ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY 50S AND 60S SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A STRONG CUTOFF LOW CONTINUING
TO SPIN OVER WESTERN TN LEAVING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WERE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA, THOUGH WERE GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT AND LOOKING A
LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. VARIOUS
CAMS STILL HINT AT SOME LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY IN A DECENTLY DEEP SATURATED LAYER, BUT SHOULDN'T
AMOUNT TO A WHOLE LOT IF THEY DO DEVELOP. FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, THE MAIN STORIES ARE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS RIDGING PASSES THROUGH
AND LEADS TO WEAKENING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL
CLEARING. HOWEVER, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA AND COULD LIMIT
SAID FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP, WE COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH SOME ISOLATED FREEZING FOG, ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF FOG IS A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD, IT COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER AND ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THAT AREA. EITHER WAY, IT'LL BE CLOSE AND
SOMETHING TO WATCH. TO THE WEST, WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF CLEARING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO TANK WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THEREFORE, ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL
HAVE SOME VEGETATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZES.
FOR THURSDAY, WE'LL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD, MAINLY IN THE MORNING,
WHERE WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SHOULD HELP US
WARM UP A BIT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A CUTOFF
LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN. HOWEVER, A FEW VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST
SOME LIGHT PRECIP COULD CLIP FAR NORTHEAST NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. PENDING EXACT TIMING, SOME OF THIS COULD EVEN
FALL AS OUR FIRST SNOW FLURRIES OF THE SEASON, BUT AT THIS TIME
ANY ACCUMULATION (RAIN OR SNOW) APPEARS UNLIKELY (5-10% CHANCE).
OTHERWISE, HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT
OF A WARMING TREND SETTING UP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP MOST
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S WITH A BREEZIER DAY OR TWO IN THERE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG IMPACTING KOMA,
WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 30/08-10Z AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER 30/15Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN
IMPACTS AT KLNK, WITH A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
30-09-11Z. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KLNK, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THIS OCCURRENCE. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KOFK. ONCE FOG IMPROVES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CALM NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING
AND NORTHERLY AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT KOFK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ050-051-065-066-
078-088-089.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...WOOD
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