435
FXUS63 KOAX 301731
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN
PARTS OF EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
FREEZING, A FEW SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
- TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA, WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING
CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH SATURDAY. A
GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE 60S IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SHIFTING INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE, WHILE A BRIEF AND WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PIVOT OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
A NARROW AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE
RESULTING CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY,
WITH WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING READINGS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-20S IN EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TO THE LOW 30S IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 AM FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF I-80,
WHERE A FIRST FREEZE HAS NOT YET OCCURRED. FOR REFERENCE, OAX FROST
AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE ONLY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER
FOR AREAS YET TO EXPERIENCE THEIR INITIAL FREEZE.
CALM WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALSO SUPPORTED FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH DENSE FOG ALREADY BEING
REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA AS OF 1
AM. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN EXPANDING FOG COVERAGE FOR
NEARLY ALL OF WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA (WITHIN 2-3 COUNTIES
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER) THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH VISIBILITIES
FALLING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING, SOME FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, LEADING TO
SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 8 AM, THOUGH
VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN RESTRICTED THROUGH 10 AM.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE CALM WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA, AND SOME CAMS DEPICT SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY WITH ITS PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD BASES NEAR 15,000 FT AND A
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. ACCORDINGLY, POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT BELOW 15%.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID-30S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING FROM
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA ON FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY WILL USHER IN A FRESH
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S, FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
WEEK FOR MOST ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-20S TO LOW 30S. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES. WHILE MOST
OF THE SYSTEM'S MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA, ROUGHLY
30% OF GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING LIGHT QPF INTO FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, THOUGH NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. POPS CURRENTLY
REMAIN BELOW 15% WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND LIMITED QPF SIGNAL.
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
PROMOTING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WIDESPREAD LOWS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
WARMING TAKES HOLD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE 60S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
WITH THIS MORNING'S FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SQUARELY IN THE REAR-VIEW
MIRROR, WINDS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS AT
KLNK AND KOMA ARE STILL HOLDING OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, BUT
WILL JOIN KOFK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
JOINING INTO THE FRAY AT KLNK AND KOFK. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS BY 23Z THIS EVENING AND THEN
INCREASE IN SPEED TOMORROW LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS RETURNING TO
ALL SITES BY 16Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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