514
FXUS63 KOAX 310430
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE SET FOR GOING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE (~10%) FOR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE 60S IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- WITH LAST NIGHT'S FREEZE AND PREVIOUS COOLER NIGHTS THIS
SEASON, WE'VE ENDED THE ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE WATCHES
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE SEASON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A POTENT MID/UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT DIVING VORT MAX HAS HELPED SWEEP
THIS MORNING'S FOG AND LOW STRATUS OUT, ALLOWING WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING HAVE BEEN IN PLACE LONGER WHILE
SCATTERED CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME RETURNS TO
SHOW UP IN THE DEEPER CLOUD FIELDS, EVAPORATING QUICKLY AND
RESULTING IN VIRGA TO BE VISIBLE UNDERNEATH TALLER CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL SLOW THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT FALL TO ZERO OVERNIGHT --
KEEPING ADDITIONAL MENTIONS OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. WITH
LAST NIGHT'S FREEZE AND PREVIOUS COOLER NIGHTS SO FAR THIS
SEASON, WE'VE ENDED THE ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE WATCHES,
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE SEASON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING LOWER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE EASTERN TROUGH RELOADS WITH THE DIVING VORT MAX AND ALLOWS FOR
THE AXIS OF THE JET STREAM TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAMS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ADDITIONAL STEEP LAPSE
RATES DEVELOPING/MOVING IN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLURRIES WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE MOSTLY LIKELY PLACE TO
SEE ANY FLAKES FLY WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE LESS
EROSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY, EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA WILL BE IN FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS
THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST PUSHES WARMER CONDITIONS EASTWARD.
EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S SUNDAY FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THEY SPREAD EASTWARD MONDAY
THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS STRUGGLE TO OUTPUT ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH ANY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW,
WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION COMING IN THE
FORM OF A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THAT APPEARS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 15-17Z FOR KOFK AND KLNK,
AND BETWEEN 16-19Z FOR KOMA. WESTERLY WINDS AT KOFK WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 12-17KTS BY 15Z. FOR KOMA AND
KLNK, NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, INCREASING
TO AROUND 12-18KTS AROUND 15-17Z. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, BUT ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ANW
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