616
FXUS63 KOAX 311044
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
544 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW END 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY WINDS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
- HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY WITH MOST SEEING DRY
CONDITIONS. FAR WESTERN IOWA MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES (<10%
CHANCE)
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A FEW HIGH BASED CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATEST METARS REPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH LIGHT WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
LOOKING AT THE H5 PATTERN, 08Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FEATURE, INCLUDING
A CLOSED 541DAM LOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND
YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE TROF NOW OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A
SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS ALSO OBSERVED AT H8 DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
AS THE H5 CLOSED LOW AND H8 FRONT TREK SOUTHEAST, EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
LATEST CAM SUITE DEVELOPS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 19Z, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST LARGE
SCALE FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE OFF TO OUR EAST,
WEAK CONVERGENCE AND FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING H8 FRONT
MAY HELP TRIGGER THESE SHOWERS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST
SOME SATURATION AND -5 TO -10 UBARS OF OMEGA IN THE LOW LEVELS
AT TIMES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND WITH THE PROFILE FLIRTING WITH THE 0C
MARK BY THE LATE EVENING, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLURRIES
OCCUR. HAVE ADDED LIGHT 15 TO 20% POPS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY,
WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR BOONE TO SHELBY COUNTIES.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR TODAY TOO AS WE SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIX INTO A 25 TO 30KT H8 LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE SLIGHTLY
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NBM GUIDANCE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SO, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHILE LOW TO MID 50S
ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDS
WILL RELAX BY THE EVENING HOURS AS MIXING CEASES AND A SFC HIGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY IN THE LOW
30S.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
WITH MOST SEEING QUIET CONDITIONS. CAMS ONCE AGAIN TRY TO
DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN IOWA,
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LINGERING, NEBULOUS FORCING
ORIGINATING FROM THE CLOSED H5 LOW. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH MOST SEEING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SATURDAY'S LOWS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS, WITH MOST SEEING UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WILL SEE H5 RIDGING AND
INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
US. THUS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
A FEW H5 DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN RIDING THE RIDGE, BUT THESE
STRUGGLE TO GENERATE ANY MEANINGFUL POPS WITH LATEST NBM
EXTENDED SHOWING LESS THAN 15% POPS IN THE PERIOD. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ARRIVE NEXT FRIDAY AS A MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FORM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5,000 TO 7,000 FT BY THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z AT THE THREE TERMINALS, BRIEFLY GUSTING UP
TO 25KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z. A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 19Z (15-20% CHANCE), BUT CONFIDENCE
THAT KOFK WILL SEE IMPACTS REMAINS LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD TO
MVFR.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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