688
FXUS63 KOAX 312023
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW END 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TAPER
OFF THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY WITH MOST SEEING DRY
CONDITIONS. FAR WESTERN IOWA MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES (~10%
CHANCE).
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A DEEP, BROAD TROUGH
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EYE CANDY THAT IS LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM SPINNING SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHICH WILL ALSO SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT ARE JUST UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO HAVE A FEW JOULES OF ENERGY UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. THAT
INSTABILITY WILL WORK WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY VORT MAX TO BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA) THAT WILL WAFT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
IOWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S AND A BALANCE BETWEEN
CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEARING TO THE
WEST, BUT SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS TO
HAVE A FLAKE OR TWO IF THEY CAN GET TALL ENOUGH TO REACH COLD
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO GET DENDRITES.
ASIDE FROM THE TAPERING OFF SHOWERS, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DECREASING SPEEDS THAT
SHOULD MAKE TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S HAVE LESS BITE TO THEM.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE THE
EASTERN MID/UPPER TROUGH RELINQUISH ITS HOLD OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IOWA IN FAVOR OF A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH THE JET
STREAM RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REBOUND IN TURN,
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S SUNDAY BEFORE MAKING THOSE
WARMER CONDITIONS MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DEPICT A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO
MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONAL FLOW AT POINTS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK,
BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH TO WORK
WITH A RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL LOOKS MOST LIKELY WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
THAT SPEEDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THAT LOOKS TO BE RAIN UNLESS YOU BELIEVE A ROUGE ENSEMBLE
MEMBER OR TWO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS STRONG
AS 26 KTS NEAR KOFK WHILE KOMA AND KLNK ARE SET TO SEE VALUES
NEAR 20 KTS AS A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA AT FL030. IN SOME OF THE DEEPER POCKETS OF CLOUDS, ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST AND EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (20% CHANCE), CLEARING UP
BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ARRIVING TO KOFK BY 05Z, KOMA BY 10Z, AND KLNK BY
16Z BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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