818
FXUS63 KOAX 010357
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW END 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TAPER
OFF THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY WITH MOST SEEING DRY
CONDITIONS. FAR WESTERN IOWA MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES (~10%
CHANCE).
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A DEEP, BROAD TROUGH
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
EYE CANDY THAT IS LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM SPINNING SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHICH WILL ALSO SPREADING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE IN SOUNDINGS SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT ARE JUST UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO HAVE A FEW JOULES OF ENERGY UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. THAT
INSTABILITY WILL WORK WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY VORT MAX TO BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (WHICH HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA) THAT WILL WAFT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
IOWA OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S AND A BALANCE BETWEEN
CLOUD COVER LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEARING TO THE
WEST, BUT SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS TO
HAVE A FLAKE OR TWO IF THEY CAN GET TALL ENOUGH TO REACH COLD
ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO GET DENDRITES.
ASIDE FROM THE TAPERING OFF SHOWERS, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DECREASING SPEEDS THAT
SHOULD MAKE TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S HAVE LESS BITE TO THEM.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE THE
EASTERN MID/UPPER TROUGH RELINQUISH ITS HOLD OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IOWA IN FAVOR OF A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH THE JET
STREAM RETURNING NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REBOUND IN TURN,
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S SUNDAY BEFORE MAKING THOSE
WARMER CONDITIONS MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DEPICT A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO
MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONAL FLOW AT POINTS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK,
BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH TO WORK
WITH A RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION. OUR NEXT CHANCE AT
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL LOOKS MOST LIKELY WITH A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
THAT SPEEDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THAT LOOKS TO BE RAIN UNLESS YOU BELIEVE A ROUGE ENSEMBLE
MEMBER OR TWO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KOFK AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
GREATER CONFIDENCE NOW THAT MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO KLNK AROUND
11Z (NOW A 70% CHANCE). KLNK WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF
THE LOW-CLOUD BANK, SO MAY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH AROUND 17Z AS LOW CIGS START TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR. LOW
CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST, LEAVING A BKN LAYER AROUND
4000-5000 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT START TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY EVENING. WE'LL SEE WINDS LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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