944
FXUS63 KOAX 020826
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
226 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH BREEZY 15-25 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. HIGHS REACH THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE MID 60S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
- WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40F.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A FEW HIGH BASED CLOUDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ALSO
REMAIN COOL WITH 08Z METARS REPORTING MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ALONG
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT, 07Z H5 RAP
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA IN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE 547DAM CLOSED LOW HAS NOW MOVED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST US. H8 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS AN EASTWARD MOVING
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES. WITH
THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION,
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, AND MID 50S FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA.
DESPITE DEEPER MIXING HAMPERED BY THE INVERSION ALOFT, MOST SHOULD
MIX INTO A RIBBON OF 30 TO 40KT WINDS AT H9. COUPLED WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECT TO SEE BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. HAVE CONTINUED TREND TO
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS MIXING
CEASES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 986MB SFC LOW IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL PUSH THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE
EVENING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THOUGH AS WE'LL SEE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40F.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY
RESULTING IN A MIX OF CLOUDS, SUN AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. BY MONDAY EVENING, H8 WARM AIR
ADVECTION RETURNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE. CAM GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE
AREA, BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE SATURATION REMAINING
ABOVE H5 WITH DRY AIR BELOW, SO MOSTLY EXPECTING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
BASED CLOUDINESS. HAVE KEPT LATEST NBM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS DRY
CONDITIONS. LOWS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 TO MID 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LONG TERM
/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
H5 PATTERN TAKES ON MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW FOR TUESDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDING THAT FLOW AND EJECTING TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
IS OBSERVED WITH THE ADVANCING WAVE, MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS
MINIMAL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THOSE ON
MONDAY EVENING WITH MOISTURE LACKING BELOW H5. MOST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NBM REMAINS DRY ASIDE FROM THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THE WAVE. HIGHS
TUESDAY WARM TO THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
H5 RIDGING IS OBSERVED BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 60S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T RETURN
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE AREA. EVEN SO, UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF FEATURES RESULTING IN NBM EXTENDED HAVING
UNMENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT STRENGTHEN TO 15-17 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-27 KT BY
02/15-16Z. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BY 03/00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
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