139
FXUS63 KOAX 030854
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ASIDE FROM
BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GRADUAL COOLING TREND
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR EAST IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WINDS HAVE EASED EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LOOKING ALOFT, RAP H5 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE 591DAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN TEXAS, AND A TROF EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. A BAND OF FGEN AT H7 RESULTED IN A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SPOTTY SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOW DISSIPATED
LEAVING BEHIND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A FEW CAMS DEVELOP
A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT LATEST BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR FROM ABOVE H9 TO H7. SO, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
LARGELY ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ALONGSIDE THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
BASED CLOUDS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING
IN CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY CALM AND
VARIABLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE H5 PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL
WHILE A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA RIDES THE FLOW
AND ARRIVES AT OUR DOORSTEP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME
ELEMENTS OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ARE OBSERVED
WITH THE TROF, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS WEAK. CAM
GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
BY 02Z THROUGH ABOUT 11Z TUESDAY, BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MID
LEVEL SATURATION AT BEST WITH A DEEP DRY LAYER UNDERNEATH. LIKELY
SCENARIO IS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL BASED CLOUDINESS AGAIN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE SFC. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO HELP INDUCE A SFC LOW WHICH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. THE H8
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WARM
TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WHILE NOT AS BREEZY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, A FEW AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, BUT WITH
LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. LOWS
COOL TO THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHILE MID 40S ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. HIGHS COOL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AS WE'LL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE
ROCKIES AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES AND WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, ANTICIPATE
BREEZY WINDS. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES
THOUGH, SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER STRONGER TROF APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHILE AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF
DIPS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA. NBM EXTENDED KEEPS UNMENTIONABLE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH GIVEN
THE LIMITED MOISTURE. A GRADUAL COOL DOWN OCCURS TOO STARTING FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOST SEEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE FL100. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BY
03/22-23Z. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, LLWS NOW LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE, SO IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
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